The Eastern Conference seeding jostling continues with Jimmy Butler’s return to Chicago, where a Miami win would keep the Heat perilously perched atop the conference and perhaps knock the Bulls a seed further back.
Miami has won all three of its matchups with Chicago this season, though their only trip to the Windy City was a mere three-point victory. Can the Heat match that tonight?
Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Heat at the Bulls on April 2.
Heat vs Bulls odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Some books opened with the Heat favored by only 1.5 points early Friday afternoon, but most first listed Miami as 2.0-point favorites. Initial movement nudged that further to -2.5. The total found the boards at either 220.5 or 221.0, depending on the book, before slipping to 220.0 by early Friday evening.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Bulls predictions
Predictions made on 4/2/2022 at 4:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Bulls game info
• Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
• Date: Saturday, April 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Chicago, Bally Sports SUN
Heat vs Bulls betting preview
Key injuries
Heat: Max Strus PG (Questionable), Gabe Vincent SG (Questionable), Caleb Martin SF (Questionable).
Bulls: Zach LaVine PG (Probable), Lonzo Ball PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Heat are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bulls.
Heat vs Bulls picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
You will be looking for a long time to find a statistical category in which the Bulls are better than the Heat of late. At this point, Chicago’s strong start to the season should be completely disregarded. Those wins matter in the standings as much as any win this week, but these are not the same Bulls.
Since the All-Star break, Chicago has gone 7-11 straight-up and 6-12 ATS. That straight-up record is comparable to a 32-win pace across the regular season, a far cry from the 53-win pace the Bulls enjoyed before the mid-February pause. Since then, Chicago has ranked No. 17 in defensive ratings, according to statmuse.com, and as the No. 26 offense.
Who knew Lonzo Ball could have such an impact?
That’s said partly in jest, but at this point, the Bulls’ lull has lasted so long, Ball’s absence should not be underscored.
Compare all those numbers to Miami’s season-long consistency, even if that consistency has staggered a bit, as well, since the break. The Heat have gone 11-7 SU and 9-9 ATS since returning to action on Feb. 25. That would be a 50-win pace across the entire season, only a touch off the 53-win pace before Jimmy Butler headed to Cleveland. Miami’s defense has remained one of the best in the league, No. 4 in defensive rating, while its offense lingers around league average at No. 19.
Like we said from the start, there is little the Bulls can claim they do better than the Heat lately, if anything. In particular, Chicago’s offense falling into the bottom-five in the league should doom any optimism heading into April. A fast-paced offense was the Bulls’ calling card during their early-season rise. That has been dashed.
DeMar DeRozan is still cooking, especially coming off a 50-point performance Thursday night. He’s scored at least 32 points in three straight games and has averaged 27.8 points per game since the All-Star break. But he is just one player.
At this point, trusting in the proven franchise, rather than the individual star, that has not fallen off as the season has progressed is the obvious choice, particularly with a spread as low as a bucket.
Prediction: Heat -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Chicago’s slowing offense has played a part in going Under the total in three of its last four games and in six of its last eight.
And looking at those rankings above, the best unit is clearly Miami’s defense. It should dictate this game in all ways. The Heat can throw defenders at DeRozan in waves, led by Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler, of course. Lowry is finding a groove, playing nearly the entire month of March after injuries held him out for most of the season. Adding him to Butler and P.J. Tucker, with supplementary minutes from Victor Oladipo, creates a defensive perimeter that could turn the Eastern Conference playoffs upside down.
Miami’s perimeter should have little trouble slowing DeRozan and LaVine tonight. Without them in rhythm, the Bulls’ offense will stymie further, as hard as that is to fathom compared to the struggles of the last month-plus.
Prediction: Under 220.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
At the risk of dodging maximum profit, taking the Heat as slight money line favorites makes sense. A spread of -1.5 or -2.0 points feels like a money line on its own, but losing that winning bet to a backdoor bucket is an aggravation we all know all too well.
This week more than most, Miami will not care how much it wins by. There is too much at stake to be worried about how things look. The Heat can clinch first-round homecourt advantage with just one more win, and they are closing in on the No. 1 seed in the East.
All five remaining Miami games are very winnable. The Heat should be favored in at least four of them — the exception being at Toronto tomorrow on the second half of a back-to-back. There may be the ever-looming threat of the Nets coming out of the play-in, but that may be even more incentive to snag the top seed. Brooklyn could end up in the top Eastern play-in game, where a win would make the Nets the No. 7 seed.
That’s how important wins are for Miami right now. Win out and the Heat can avoid Kevin Durant for a few extra rounds. Let’s bet on those wins.
Pick: Heat moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)
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