The New York Knicks will try to bounce back from a tough road trip as they return to Madison Square Garden to take on the Miami Heat on Monday night.
New York is the far better team here and should beat up on a struggling opponent, so I’m taking it to cover in my Heat vs. Knicks predictions.
Read on for a full breakdown of tonight’s matchup in my free NBA picks for Monday, March 17.
Heat vs Knicks prediction
My best bet: Knicks -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While it’s true the New York Knicks haven’t been the same team without Jalen Brunson — who has missed four games with an ankle injury — New York still won two of those four.
Considering those losses came to the Clippers and Warriors on a West Coast road trip, I don’t think we can discount the Knicks all that much right now, especially when they're playing at home.
On the other hand, the Miami Heat are just plain bad right now. Yes, the Heat are clinging to a spot in the Play-In tournament, but they’ve now lost seven straight games and failed to even cover in any of their last five outings.
They haven’t scored as many as 110 points since March 2 and have allowed opponents to score an average of 112 ppg during the losing streak. That doesn’t sound bad until you remember Miami has only averaged 109.3 ppg for the year, and that number has come down since it traded away Jimmy Butler.
In a matchup of two teams that have gone through some struggles as of late, particularly on the offensive end, it seems sportsbooks are holding that against the Knicks more than the Heat. I see that as a mistake because when you strip Butler and Brunson away from the rosters these teams had for most of the year, New York still has the far better roster.
Outside of Brunson, the Knicks are largely healthy, with Karl-Anthony Towns fully capable of stepping into the role of the leading scorer in the meantime. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are also capable scorers, and even if the offense is scuffling a bit right now, this team should be able to figure things out — especially at home.
The Heat don’t have that many big weapons. Tyler Herro is having a great year, but Bam Adebayo will struggle in this matchup against Towns, and Andrew Wiggins is day-to-day with a leg injury.
This has all the makings of a rebound game for the Knicks, who be happy to get home after their West Coast trip.
Heat vs Knicks same-game parlay
Knicks -7.5
Over 210.5
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 25.5 points
These teams play a slow, low-scoring brand of basketball, but just how low that number will go is still an open question. Along with taking the Knicks to cover, I’m also taking the Over at 210.5 points.
Not because I think this will be a shootout, but because the odds of these teams combining to hit that total are just too high. The Knicks are a solid offensive team, and New York and Miami have hit the Over in their last four meetings overall.
Towns scored 29 points in a Saturday loss at the Golden State Warriors when the Knicks only scored 97 points overall, and I expect him to put up similar numbers in a game tonight where New York should have an easier time on offense.
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Heat vs Knicks odds
Heat vs Knicks live odds
Heat vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Miami +7.5 | New York -7.5
- Moneyline: Miami +270 | New York -340
- Over/Under: Over 213 | Under 213
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Heat vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Neither team has been great against the spread this year, with the Knicks going 30-35-1 ATS and the Heat putting up a 28-38-1 ATS record.
- New York has won the first two meetings against Miami this year, though the teams have gone 1-1 ATS in those games.
- The Over has a 34-33 edge in Heat games and has a slightly larger 35-31 advantage when the Knicks have played this season.
- Miami is playing to an average total of 220.0 ppg on the season, while New York is averaging a total of 229.2 ppg.
Heat vs Knicks trend
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Knicks.
How to watch Heat vs Knicks
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Date | Monday, 3-17-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Heat vs Knicks latest injuries
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