It's the battle for Florida as the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic square off at the newly-named Kia Center on Wednesday, December 20. The Magic are favored in the NBA odds to defeat the Heat, something Magic fans are not too accustomed to seeing in this matchup.
Surprisingly, we are roughly 25 games into the NBA season, and this is the first game between the Magic and Heat. With four games scheduled against each other, you'd think we would have already seen this matchup once this season. An even bigger surprise might be that the Magic are the Heat's biggest competition in winning the Southeast division this season as Orlando currently leads Miami by two games in the race for first place.
With Jimmy Butler out with an injury, can the Heat find a way to pull off a road upset against the Magic, who have been strong at home this season with an 11-2 record? Find out my favorite NBA picks and predictions for tonight's matchup featuring the Heat vs. Magic.
Heat vs Magic odds
Heat vs Magic predictions
In their game on Monday against the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Miami Heat welcomed back two key pieces to the starting lineup in Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, but they will be without Jimmy Butler when they face the Orlando Magic tonight.
I didn't identify any opportunities in the Heat player props to take advantage of in Butler's absence from the lineup, so my attention turned to the Magic, and I'm revisiting a bet that cost me a unit on Sunday.
When the Magic faced the Boston Celtics, I placed a bet on the Under 4.5 assists for Franz Wagner, and he dropped six dimes. However, after going back and watching the film, I feel confident that 4.5 with this type of juice is indeed too high of a total for Wagner.
Joe Ingles missed that game, which may seem insignificant but is crucial for a Wagner assists prop. The Magic like to split up Paolo Banchero's and Wagner's minutes, and Ingles usually subs in for Wagner to help achieve this. Despite Ingles' age, the Magic often use him as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, creating offense for the second unit.
So, while the Ingles injury appears like it might result in more playmaking opportunities for Wagner, it doesn't impact Wagner all that much because they sub for each other. Plus, with how the Magic altered their substitution patterns, it actually had the opposite effect. Wagner was crossing over and playing more minutes with Banchero, and this took Wagner off the ball for a couple of extra minutes where he is usually the primary option in the offense.
I bet you didn't expect to read about an Ingles injury affecting some player props on a Wednesday, but here we are.
Wagner is projected to have four assists against the Heat, which is much higher than you would have seen at the beginning of the season when Wagner's total was set at 2.5. So while Wagner has elevated his play, the assists total has adjusted too much towards the Over. With this projection, we can price Wagner at -170 to go Under the total of 4.5 assists.
My best bet: Franz Wagner Under 4.5 assists (-130 at FanDuel)
Heat vs Magic same-game parlay
Franz Wagner Under 4.5 assists
Jalen Suggs Under 1.5 made threes
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Under 13.5 points
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If you're going Under on an assist prop, one of the easiest paths to accomplishing this goal is through one of the shooters on the team missing three-point shots. Jalen Suggs buried some 3-pointers over the weekend off Wagner's passes, so if he misses those tonight, there's a strong probability that we also hit the Under in our assists prop. Suggs is also playing with a taped wrist on his non-shooting hand, which he injured against the Celtics.
The Jaime Jaquez Jr. leg of this parlay doesn't correlate to the Wagner bet in any fashion, I just think this number is a little too high for Jaquez. He should be trading more in the 12.5-point range, but there is obviously a lot of love for the rookie in the market with Butler's absence. Butler may be out, but Adebayo and Herro are back in, and shots won't come easy around the rim for Jaquez against the Magic.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Heat vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis
The Magic opened as a 5.0-point favorite over the Heat at FanDuel, and we have seen little to no movement in the line. The juice hasn't really changed either, as the Magic opened at -5 (-114) and is now trading at -5 (-112).
The total opened at 217.5, and we saw it touch as high as 221.5, but it was met with some resistance at this number, pushing the line back down to 219. If you're looking to bet on this total, make sure you shop around because we are seeing some 218.5 out there in the market.
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Heat vs Magic betting trend to know
The Orlando Magic have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 68 games (+13.40 Units / 14% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Magic.
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Heat vs Magic game info
| Location: | Amway Center, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 20, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Florida |
Heat vs Magic latest injuries
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