Heat vs Spurs Picks and Predictions: Johnson's Jumper Doesn't Travel

Saturday, December 17 will be the first NBA Mexico City Game since 2019. Taking the floor of the neutral court are the suddenly-streaking Miami Heat and the thoroughly rebuilding San Antonio Spurs. Miami is hoping to add to a three-game winning streak, while the Spurs are hoping for a repeat performance from December 10, when they beat Miami 115-111.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Spurs believe that altitude and a heavy offensive burden should see Keldon Johnson struggle from the perimeter on Saturday afternoon

Heat vs Spurs best odds

Heat vs Spurs picks and predictions

It was controversial, but the decision to trade Dejounte Murray was the best thing for the future of the San Antonio Spurs. For years since the Kawhi Leonard trade, they’ve been mired in the middle, a team without an identity or a path to real improvement. Now they have one: bottoming out. But it’s not going to be pretty.

As a result, their remaining prospects get a long rope to try things and see what sticks. That’s both a blessing and a curse. Not all development time is created equal, and not every player improves by stretching their game to fit new and bigger roles.

So, it’s a bit difficult to evaluate Keldon Johnson right now, perhaps the best prospect on the Spurs (and certainly the best-known). Johnson had previously been a high-efficiency role player for San Antonio in his first three years, but this year, he’s stretched his usage rate into pseudo-star territory at 27.8% and the results have been uneven at best. He’s scoring less effectively from every spot on the court, in some spots significantly less, and it’s not clear if this year will be a net positive for his growth.

The real dip recently has been in his 3-point shooting. His 2021-2022 campaign saw Johnson hit 39.8% on 5.3 attempts per game, this season it’s plummeted to 34.2% on a whopping 7.8 attempts. It’s been trending even worse recently, as Johnson has hit just 23.3% of his triples in December, and with confidence shaken’ has seen his attempts fall to be below last year’s rate despite his overall increase in usage rate.

Johnson would have hit the Over on this line only three times in his last 12 games, and just once in the last six. And the context tonight is not favorable to him breaking out of this slump.

For all their missing parts, the Miami Heat are still full of versatile wing and big guard defenders who can take turns marking Johnson. But the biggest factor is where today’s game is to be played.

Mexico City is by far the highest-altitude arena that NBA teams play in. High altitude has a noticeable impact on players’ wind and their ability to generate power on their shots over the course of a game. For reference, Salt Lake City sits at 1,288 meters above sea level while Denver is at 1,609 meters, giving them one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. But Mexico City towers above both at 2,240 meters. 

With thin air and a quality defensive opponent, I’m not expecting Johnson to rediscover his shooting stroke this afternoon.

My best bet: Keldon Johnson Under 2.5 3-pointers made (-123)

Heat vs Spurs spread analysis

The Miami Heat play a grueling, physical style of basketball. It has a tendency to wear down opposing teams until they mentally give in, but that style of play may now be taking a toll on the Heat themselves.

Miami has listed a staggering 14 players on the injury report, all to varying degrees of severity. There’s just no way to know at this moment who on the Heat will play with certainty, but I’m expecting Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo to at least give it a go against San Antonio in order to keep their short winning streak alive.

They’re coming off a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, but the Spurs have put together a bit of a run over the last several games. They beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in spectacular fashion thanks to a high-flying block by Johnson, thoroughly trounced fellow Wembanyama enthusiasts the Houston Rockets, and squeaked out a four-point win against these very Miami Heat.

If that most recent game between the Heat and the Spurs is instructive, Miami bettors should be cautious. 

The Spurs won that contest despite being drastically outshot from the perimeter and turning the ball over a ton. They beat Miami up on the boards and the game was close throughout. This line coming in at Heat -7 seems right on the money, as the Spurs won that previous game by four and the largest lead by either team was just eight.

And despite their three-game winning streak, Miami has struggled against the spread recently going just 1-5-1 in its last seven. Worse still, the Heat are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against losing teams like the Spurs.

Heat vs Spurs Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under has fluctuated around 221.5, and I think that’s probably a bit on the high side. The Spurs actually have some pretty solid defensive talent. Romeo Langford has flashed improved on-ball guard defense and Zach Collins has made real strides as a rim protector. 

However, Jakob Poeltl, one of the hottest names on the trade market and an imposing rim defender, has struggled to contain drives this season in the same way. It could be real regression but it’s just as likely his effort has waned as the Spurs continue to play in meaningless games.

The Heat defense just keeps humming seemingly no matter who is in or out of the lineup. They’re getting contributions from a lot of different guys including Victor Oladipo, who has had a few eye-opening defensive plays of late.

For me this line is about trusting the Heat’s defense as much as it is distrusting the Spurs’ offense. The Spurs have had some high-scoring games recently, but they’ve also failed to eclipse 100 points in five of their last 12 games and I don’t have a lot of faith that Miami’s offense is going to be strong enough carry this Over. While their defense has stayed solid, injuries and all, their offense has fallen to pieces. They’ve played at the level of the 29th-ranked offense in the NBA over the last seven games.

It’s hard to expect much offensive rhythm from a group of Heat players that changes so much on a night-to-night basis. They’re so singularly dependent on Herro hitting a lot of high-difficulty jump shots to stay afloat. Just as I expect altitude and heavy legs to hamper Johnson, I’m betting the same things are going to be a major impediment to efficient shooting on Saturday for both teams.

Heat vs Spurs betting trend to know

Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Spurs.

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