The entire time the Phoenix Suns were actively shopping Kevin Durant ahead of the NBA trade deadline, a sprained ankle kept the superstar from playing in three games. This was not some attempt to alter Durant’s trade value, merely a coincidence, but it adds a layer of intrigue tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.
That intrigue will only further Phoenix’s miseries, as Memphis is a road favorite and one that my Grizzlies vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks will trust.
Tip comes at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 11.
Grizzlies vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Grizzlies -4 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Phoenix Suns' attempts to trade Kevin Durant — when he did not demand it in any way — underscore just how sour things have gone for them.
Not only was Phoenix swept in laughable fashion by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of last year’s playoffs, but it is currently outside the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference standings.
A roster built around Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal should not need to worry about making the playoffs, let alone the Play-in.
And yet, that may undersell how far below expectations the Suns have fallen.
Since sports betting became regulated in the United States, the worst team to bet on was last year’s Atlanta Hawks, going 29-53 against the spread. Now, 52 games into the season, Phoenix is on pace to go 29-52-1 ATS. Never before has a mid-January push against the Charlotte Hornets loomed so large.
On a similar note, the best team to bet on since sports betting became regulated in the United States was the 2020-21 New York Knicks, going 45-26-1 ATS in that abridged season, a win rate of 63.2%. The Memphis Grizzlies are currently on pace to go 54-28 ATS, a win rate of 65.9%.
Those trends may not be enough on their own to justify this bet, but the collision of two trends that strong should garner attention.
Beyond that, realize how strong Memphis has been in the last month. At +7.4, it enjoys the No. 8 net rating in the NBA, three points better than Phoenix, which is ranked 17th at -1.0.
Grizzlies vs Suns same-game parlay
Grizzlies -4
Kevin Durant Under 4.5 assists
Over 245.0
Durant cleared this prop in 10 of 17 games before his ankle injury, but five of those 10 successes were with just five assists. If he focuses on his shot in his return to action, that should be enough of a shift to provide value in the Under. Any added Durant reluctance to move the ball creates that value.
Betting the Over along with that Under on assists escalates this same-game parlay payout more than it should. They are not inherently all that correlated.
Both teams live on their offenses. Memphis ranked No. 3 in offensive rating last month, and Phoenix ranked No. 12. Their defensive ratings are No. 18 and No. 20, respectively.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Grizzlies vs Suns odds
Grizzlies vs Suns live odds
Grizzlies vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Memphis -2.5 | Phoenix +2.5
- Moneyline: Memphis -140 | Phoenix +120
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 | Under 237.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis opened as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday evening. By the end of the night, the number had steamrolled to -4 and then peaked at -4.5 a few times overnight.
- Tuesday morning saw a return to -4 and then even a brief respite at -3.5 before settling at -4.
- The total opened at a meager 237.5 and spiked to 242.5 on Monday night. Overnight, it climbed to 244, and then on Tuesday morning, it rose to 245.
Grizzlies vs Suns trend
Phoenix is 6-13 ATS this season as an underdog, including 3-9 ATS this season as a multi-bucket underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Suns.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Suns
| Location | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Grizzlies vs Suns latest injuries
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