The NBA has to balance some odd scheduling dynamics heading into the All-Star Break, leaving us with only four games tonight.
Only one of those matchups features two playoff-caliber teams, not to mention a spread within a bucket. The Knicks vs. the Pacers should be entertaining, but where else can we find value tonight?
Our free NBA picks look through this short slate on Tuesday, February 11.
Best NBA player props today
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 13.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365) 
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365) 
Kevin Durant Under 4.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
NBA player props for February 11
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 13.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
Karl-Anthony Towns has long been known as a shooter, the self-proclaimed and certainly statistically best-shooting big man in NBA history. He is rarely given due credit for his rebounding, averaging double-digit rebounds in each of his first six seasons with the Minnesota Timberwolves and a slight rounding from making that seven. His rebounding fell off to only 8+ per game in the last two seasons as he tried to accommodate Rudy Gobert’s presence in the paint.
Towns' rebounding has leveled up in his first season with the New York Knicks, averaging 13.5 boards per game. Most notably, he is grabbing 33.8% of available defensive rebounds, leading the NBA and the highest mark in his career, not to mention more than 10 percentage points higher than any of his last three seasons. Snagging 10.5% of available offensive rebounds is the highest mark for Towns since the 2018-19 season.
Tonight he takes that emphasis against one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers rank No. 23 in the last month in defensive rebounding share and last in the NBA in offensive rebounding share.
The Knicks' star should have little trouble controlling the glass tonight. Every missed Indiana shot will have a better than 1-in-3 chance of landing in Towns’s hands if he is on the court.
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)
The Toronto Raptors have made it clear they see a future with Scottie Barnes as a cornerpiece of a contender. Part of that allure is his ability to stuff the stat sheet. In the last month, Barnes has dished out at least five assists in 11 of 15 games. More pertinently, he has collected at least eight rebounds in eight of those 15 contests.
Eight of 15 is hardly a strong enough trend to endorse a bet with -135 juice, but look at Toronto’s opponent tonight. As the Philadelphia 76ers continue to scuffle, still out of even the Play-In Tournament in the current standings, a significant chunk of the blame should be put on their inability to rebound.
Philadelphia ranks last in the NBA in the last month in defensive rebounding rate at 66.1% and No. 28 in offensive rebounding rate at 25.2%. To put a bow on that, the 76ers are grabbing a smaller share of rebounds than anyone else in the NBA.
Other than Joel Embiid, Kelly Oubre Jr. is the only wing in the 76ers' rotation with a respectable rebounding rate this season at 11.0%.
For context, Barnes’s rebounding rate is 12.3%. That may not seem like a significant jump, but he is just one of Toronto’s pieces. Oubre will also have to contend with Chris Boucher, RJ Barrett, and Bruce Brown.
Barnes should relish the open chances at the glass tonight with so few 76ers players looking that way.
Kevin Durant Under 4.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
Kevin Durant has not played since before his name was actively shopped at the trade deadline. The timing of the Phoenix Suns’ superstar’s ankle injury was nothing but a coincidence, but it does make one wonder how Durant will handle his return to the court.
The 18-year veteran knows the business. He quite literally called it that. “It’s just part of the business,” Durant said of Phoenix’s trade efforts.
Most likely, Durant will focus on the most reliable part of his game, his shooting. It is what has made his career.
That should come at the detriment of moving the ball. Durant regularly clears his assists prop, having done so in 10 of 17 games in the month before his ankle injury, but he rarely does so with a cushion. Durant handed out six or more dimes in just five of those 10 successes.
Cutting down on his ball movement is likely to doom this prop to the Under, and Durant’s focus tonight should not be on passing. It should be on shooting.
That is even more true when realizing how much the Memphis Grizzlies may struggle to guard him. The Grizzlies’ best hope may be Jaren Jackson Jr., and as stellar as the former Defensive Player of the Year is, Durant should be too quick for that matchup.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
