The Heat dispatched the Spurs 128-107 when the teams met on January 19 at Kaseya Center, but the Spurs will look to even up the season series at home tonight.
My Heat vs. Spurs predictions expect Bam Adebayo to continue his hot streak and deliver another quality performance. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Bam’s combo prop.
Heat vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Bam Adebayo’s scoring is down a bit from last season, but he’s still getting it done across the board with averages of 15.9 points, 9.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists for the Miami Heat. That’s good for 30.3 PRAs per game, but I expect him to be even better than that tonight on the road.
Over his last three, Adebayo has averaged a whopping 21.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists, getting involved as a scorer, rebounder and facilitator. On the season, the San Antonio Spurs have allowed opposing centers to average 25.5 points, 14.5 rebounds and 4.4 assists. Across the last 15, however, San Antonio has surrendered 29.1 points, 15 rebounds and 4.2 dimes. In that span, no team has given up more points to opposing big men.
The Spurs rank 19th in defensive rating on the season, but the team has fallen to 22nd across its last 15. In that span, San Antonio’s defense has given up the seventh-most points, third-most rebounds and 11th-most assists. This is a phenomenal defensive matchup for Adebayo.
On the season, Adebayo has hit the Over on this line in 17 games overall, including each of his last three. He failed to hit the Over in his first matchup with the Spurs this season, but that contest was a blowout at home. In his two games against the Spurs last season, he hit the Over in a close matchup on the road and hit the Under at home in a double-digit victory.
I expect tonight’s matchup to be close, and the oddsmakers do too with the spread set at just one point. Adebayo should be in line for big minutes and production in a hard-fought battle in San Antonio.
Heat vs Spurs same-game parlay
Bam Adebayo Over 32.5 points, rebound, and assists
Over 224
Spurs moneyline
Both teams have hit the Over more often than not this season, combining for a 52-39 record to the Over. Across their last 20 combined games, the Spurs and Heat are 14-6 to the Over. Miami has hit the Over in 12 of 20 games as the underdog, and San Antonio has done it in nine of 15 as the favorite and in seven of 10 as the home favorite.
The Spurs are 21-16 to the Over outside of their division and 8-4 against Eastern Conference opponents. The Over has hit in four of the last six head-to-head matchups including this season’s first game - a 128-107 Heat victory.
This is a one-point spread, and both teams have the same odds on the ML. Tonight’s matchup is essentially a Pick ‘Em, so I’ll take the home team to come through with a win. The Heat sandwiched two wins between a pair of blowout losses, and despite some promising returns from a new jumbo lineup featuring Kel’el Ware and Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt, Miami’s roster is not deep and not exceptionally talented.
The Spurs are 11-4 straight up as the favorite and 7-3 as the home favorite. Miami is just 7-13 as the underdog and 5-9 as the road dog.
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Heat vs Spurs odds
Heat vs Spurs live odds
Heat vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Miami +2.5 (-110) | San Antonio -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +120 | San Antonio -140
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 (-110) | Under 222.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami is 4-6 ATS across its last 10, and the team is 20-26 on the season.
- San Antonio has covered in just three of 10, and the Spurs are 22-23 ATS this season.
- The Heat have hit the Over in six of 10, and the team is 26-20 to the Over through 46 games.
- The Spurs are 8-2 to the Over across their last 10 and 26-19 to the Over this season.
Heat vs Spurs trend
The Heat have won four straight and eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups with the Spurs. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Spurs.
How to watch Heat vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Saturday, 2-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN, KENS |
Heat vs Spurs latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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