Jazz vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Target the Total in Western Conference Showdown

The Dallas Mavericks will look to continue their recent run of strong play when they host the struggling Utah Jazz on Thursday night.

Dallas (40-29) has improved its chances of getting out of the play-in tournament by winning six of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Utah (29-40) has slid out of playoff contention after dropping 14 of its last 17 in the NBA odds.

In the first two showdowns between these teams this season, each has scored one blowout win. We’ll take a look at what to expect in tonight’s matchup in our free NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Mavericks on March 21.

Jazz vs Mavericks odds

Jazz vs Mavericks predictions

The Utah Jazz have been in an absolute freefall over the past month. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, continuing a recent run in which the team has struggled to beat anyone. Utah has gone from what looked to be a solid playoff contender to being well out of the final play-in position in the Western Conference.

Some of that slide can be put down to injuries, though it’s hardly the whole story. Leading scorer Lauri Markkanen (23.0 points per game) has missed seven games this month while recovering from — and now maintaining — a quadriceps contusion. Jordan Clarkson (17.4 ppg) also sat out last night’s game with a groin issue, his fourth straight absence from the lineup.

As of noon on Thursday, it’s still unclear if either of these players will suit up tonight, as it’s the second half of a back-to-back for Utah. My best guess is that Markkanen will be in the lineup after sitting out on Wednesday, while Clarkson is likely to miss at least one more game.

Either way, this is a team that is not producing on offense the way it once did. Utah has hit the Under in each of its last three games and has been held below 110 points in four of its last five — all losses.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the year as they eye a top-six seed in the Western Conference. Luka Doncic (34.1 ppg) and Kyrie Irving (25.4 ppg) seem to have figured out how to play together optimally, which has made them one of the most dangerous backcourts in the NBA.

Dallas tends to enjoy playing at a fast pace, yet still manages to look controlled and deliberate on offense at times when Doncic has the ball. That has allowed the Mavericks to play a variety of different styles successfully, which has shown up on recent nights. Dallas has hit the Under in four of its last five games, but that’s hardly been an issue, as the Mavericks have prevailed all four times the Under has hit.

These two trends have me wondering just how much scoring we can expect in tonight’s contest. No matter who suits up for Utah, I have doubts about how much the Jazz will be able to score against a Mavs team that seems locked in right now. The Jazz will also struggle on the second night of a back-to-back, which tends to lower offensive production by a few points.

If the Mavs continue to play the style of basketball that has found them so much success lately, we shouldn’t see a barrage of scoring.

My best bet: Under 237.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Jazz vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Under 237.5

Mavericks -14

Luka Doncic 30+ points

+353 at FanDuel

The Under is my best bet tonight, and it will be the first leg of my same-game parlay as well. In addition, I’ll take the Mavericks to cover the hefty spread of 14 points. With the Jazz lineup in tatters and playing the second leg of a back-to-back on the road, this game shouldn’t be close.

As usual, it will be Doncic who paces the Dallas offense tonight. I’m rounding out my SGP by taking him to score at least 30 points in tonight’s game. Luka has hit that total in 10 of his last 13 games and should be able to go to work against Utah.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jazz vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mavericks opened tonight’s game as 13.5-point favorites over the Jazz. That number has lengthened even further, with books split between offering Dallas at -14 or -14.5. 

While they have struggled as of late, the Jazz have been decent against the spread, going 37-32 ATS on the year. Dallas has been similarly successful for bettors, carrying a 38-31 ATS mark on the season.

Spreads this large are always scary when it comes to the NBA, as any team can sometimes keep it close against a superior opponent. However, Utah is coming off a game in Oklahoma City last night and will struggle against a Dallas team that had the night off. The Mavs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, and I’m leaning toward taking them to cover again tonight.

The total for tonight’s game opened at 238.5 points. That number has come down slightly, with the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 237.5. You can find -110 on either side of the total at most books.

Utah has generally played above the total this year, with the Over holding a 37-30-2 edge when the Jazz play. Dallas has gone the opposite way, with the Under having the 36-33 advantage in its games.

Both teams have been hitting the Under with some regularity as of late. Utah has struggled to score a bit following the injuries to Markkanen and Clarkson, while Dallas has been playing better defense in recent games. These factors are all pushing me to expect a lower-scoring contest.

Jazz vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Dallas’ last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.

Jazz vs Mavericks game info

Jazz vs Mavericks latest injuries

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