Jazz vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Schedule, Jokic Conspire Against Utah

The Northwest Division has been full of surprises this season — and the Utah Jazz will look to keep raising eyebrows as they take on the Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Jazz (15-13) have been fearless against the NBA elite but are coming off a disappointing 118-108 loss to the Timberwolves last night in Rudy Gobert’s return to Utah.

Flying under the radar seems to suit the Nuggets (15-10) just fine, but Thursday’s timely 121-120 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers — sparked by Nikola Jokic’s 33 points — halted a mini-slump.

Learn more in our Jazz vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions for tonight’s divisional matchup.

Jazz vs Nuggets best odds

Jazz vs Nuggets picks and predictions

We’re probably at the point of voter fatigue now, but Nikola Jokic is again putting up MVP-level numbers this season. With Michael Porter Jr. out and Jamal Murray questionable, Jokic could be back in familiar territory tonight with the offense resting squarely on his shoulders.

The Jokic matchup is a major headache for the Jazz, especially if Lauri Markkanen is sidelined again with the illness that kept him out last night. That would leave Utah with rookie Walker Kessler and Jarred Vanderbilt as Will Hardy’s main options, and neither stands a chance of slowing down Jokic or keeping him off the boards. 

I expect to see a steady dose of double-teams tonight any time the reigning MVP catches the ball in the paint — and possibly even extra defenders when he’s initiating the offense from the perimeter. Getting the ball out of his hands has to be at the core of the visitors’ game plan.

But Jokic has seen every defensive scheme and he dissects them all. He’s coming off a near triple-double against the Trail Blazers, and overhelping will just unlock his stellar passing — with wide-open looks in the corners and easy buckets in the paint for cutters like Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown.

You could single out various prop bets for Jokic on any given night, but I’m focusing on the Nuggets to cover the spread, with the Serbian leading the way and Gordon and Bones Hyland stepping up as secondary scorers.

My best bet: Nuggets -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM) 

Jazz vs Nuggets spread analysis

A trip to Denver on the second night of a back-to-back set is one of the NBA’s toughest schedule tests, and Utah arrives without its full roster. The Nuggets would have been favored regardless, but the line likely inched higher given Denver’s extra rest and some of the Jazz’s health concerns.

I like Jokic’s wizardry to cover this spread against an overmatched Jazz frontcourt, but Denver still needs to solve the non-Jokic minutes where the team tends to lose its flow and cough up leads. If Murray is unavailable, the hosts will need a steady performance from Hyland when he’s given the keys to the offense.

Mike Conley’s return last night was a welcome sign for the visitors, but he may not be risked here given the quick turnaround. Utah’s second unit has been a major weapon this season, but regular bench contributors Kessler and Malik Beasley were thrust into the starting line-up last night, leaving the rotation in flux.

Jazz vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under is tricky to call with Murray and Markkanen both listed as questionable. Their absences would put a dent in both offenses and likely tilt the matchup toward the Under.

Still, with a rotation packed with proven scorers, the Jazz have been hitting the Over consistently this season — the Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games and 5-2 in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Markkannen was at shootaround before sitting out against Minnesota, so there’s a decent chance he returns to bolster the Utah offense tonight and take some of the burden off Jordan Clarkson, who needed 20 shots for his 21 points against the Timberwolves.

Both these teams run slick offenses, with the Jazz third in points per game (117.5) and the Nuggets 11th (115) despite Porter Jr. missing nine games. Of course, if you’re picking the Over, the Jokic factor is huge and his ability to influence the game as a scorer and playmaker gives Denver a chance to crack the 120-point mark on any given night.

Just keep in mind that the Utah offense might be lacking some of its usual pop after playing at home last night and then traveling to Denver.

Jazz vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Jazz are 5-11-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Denver. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets.

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