Jazz vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: No Answers For Jokic

The Utah Jazz are hoping an extended break and the return of their top defensive stopper can snap a four-game losing skid when they visit the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night.

Utah center Rudy Gobert is expected to play his first game since January 3 after being in health and safety protocols, which left the Jazz to go 1-4 SU and ATS without him. That lone win came against Denver in a 115-109 road win on January 5 and the NBA betting odds have Utah installed as a 4.5-point favorite tonight.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Jazz at Nuggets on January 16.

Jazz vs Nuggets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

With Gobert expected back, Utah opened as a 4.5-point road favorite and dipped to -4 before jumping to +5. The total hit the board at 223 and has bounced between that number and 224 points as of Sunday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Jazz vs Nuggets predictions

• Prediction: Nuggets +5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 224 (-110)
• Best bet: Jokic Over 24.5 points (-118)

Predictions made on 01/16/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jazz vs Nuggets game info

• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Sunday, January 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude, ATTSN-RM

Jazz vs Nuggets betting preview

Injuries

Jazz: Udoka Azubuike C (Questionable), Hassan Whiteside C (Out), Jared Butler G (Out), Elijah Hughes F (Out)
Nuggets: Bol Bol C (Questionable), Austin Rivers G (Questionable), Jamal Murray G (Out), JaMychal Green PF (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-3 in Nuggets’ last 11 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets.

Jazz vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Nuggets enter this divisional rivalry off a huge win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday, thumping L.A. 133-96 for their second straight blowout win and fourth victory in the five games since losing to Utah on January 5. 

Sunday marks the third game in four days for Denver, however, thanks to those one-sided scores, the workload has been spread evenly across starters and reserves. That luxury is huge for a team missing key contributors, with seven players scoring in double figures in the win over the Lakers.

As for Utah, getting Gobert back in the middle of the paint is massive for this defense. That said, he’ll draw the assignment of slowing down reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, who is once again proving why he’s among the NBA elite. 

Jokic posted a triple-double in only 28 minutes of play Saturday and had 26 points, 21 rebounds and 11 assists in the last meeting with Utah – that coming with Gobert out of the lineup. Jokic has shredded the Jazz in their recent matchups – Gobert or no Gobert – averaging 31 points over his last seven run-ins with Utah.

Denver closed as a 1-point home favorite in that January 5 matchup with the Jazz after opening as big as +6 before Gobert was ruled out (shoulder). That said, the Nuggets were without head coach Michael Malone and forwards Jeff Green and Zeke Nnaji due to health and safety measures. 

Getting Gobert back is a big fix for a Jazz defense that has struggled in his absence. But he alone may not be enough to contain a Nuggets attack ranking No. 1 in offensive rating the past five games, the best player in the league, and great scoring depth down the Denver bench. This one will be a tighter finish than oddsmakers think.

Prediction: Nuggets +5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Utah’s biggest troubles without Gobert have been the perimeter, missing the liberty to play up and tight on opponents with its heels above the 3-point line, knowing that the rim protector is there to bail them out should they get beat off the dribble.

Without Gobert, the Jazz have had to sag off perimeter players and that’s led to foes finding much more space beyond the arc. Utah has allowed opponents to shoot almost 41% from distance and 51% from the floor overall during this losing skid. 

Gobert’s return should grant his teammates permission to cheat up on a Denver perimeter attack that was fueling its recent offensive surge. The Nuggets have been shooting at a 39.5% clip from beyond the arc and averaging almost 15 triples per game over the past five outings. 

Before losing Gobert for five games, Utah was allowing a mere 22.4 assists per game (fifth lowest) and will make ball movement tough for a Denver team reliant on making the extra pass, sitting second in assist per field goal (0.654) in the NBA. 

Prediction: Under 224 (-110)

Best bet

The return of Gobert is notable for Utah, but he could be getting too much credit when it comes to his on-the-ball matchup with Nikola Jokic.

Jokic’s points prop for Sunday is sitting at 24.5 (Over -118). The Nuggets superstar took advantage of no Gobert on January 5, with 26 points and managed 24 points in just 15 minutes (before missing the second half) against Utah on October 26. Last season, he averaged 35.3 points over three meetings with the Jazz.

Jokic has posted point totals of just 17 and 20 the past two games but recorded only 28 minutes of floor time in each of those one-sided wins. He’ll log major minutes in this key divisional showdown Sunday and with Utah putting the clamps on the Nuggets' perimeter, Jokic will touch the ball on almost every possession. 

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points (-118)

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