Karl-Anthony Towns Odds and Props: Towns Brings Heat in Game 5

Karl-Anthony Towns saved the Minnesota Timberwolves’ season in the second half on Tuesday. Scoring 10 points in the fourth quarter after picking up his fifth foul kept the offense humming well enough to hold off the Dallas Mavericks and prolong this Western Conference Finals by at least one more game.

It was not the first time Towns saved Minnesota’s season in these playoffs. A strong argument could be made he kept the Wolves in Game 7 against the Nuggets last round when he scored 13 of their 38 first-half points and 21 of their 66 points through three quarters. Without him, the historic 20-point comeback may have needed to be a 30-point rally.

Despite the public discourse too often lampooning Towns, he has historically delivered in elimination games. One area of his game should be most trustworthy tonight, partly due to the general nature of Minnesota games in 2024. We'll trust Towns on the glass in our NBA picks before Mavericks vs. Timberwolves tips on Thursday, May 30 tips at 8:30 ET.

Karl-Anthony Towns prop picks for May 30

• Karl-Anthony Towns Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at Caesars)
• Over 7.5 rebounds + Over 2.5 threes + Under 2.5 assists (+750 at DraftKings)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Karl-Anthony Towns best bet

Karl-Anthony Towns pick: Over 7.5 rebounds

In his last two elimination games, the ones discussed above, Karl-Anthony Towns scored 23 and 25 points, but he's not been a consistent scorer in these playoffs, averaging 18.5 points but falling short of his points prop of 19.5 in nine of 15 games. Most loudly, he missed all eight of his 3-point attempts in Game 3 to finish with just 14 points on 5-for-18 shooting.

Furthermore, tonight’s total of 209.5 suggests scoring may be at a premium. Three of the six times Towns has cracked 20 points this postseason came in games with totals higher than this depressed number, but a low total should lend itself to missed shots. And missed shots yield rebounding opportunities.

In five elimination games across the last three seasons, preceding Game 4, Towns had grabbed 10+ rebounds in all of them, averaging 11.4 boards. Do not get squeamish because Rudy Gobert was not alongside his side for all those elimination games; he was for four of them, and Towns still grabbed 11+ rebounds in each of them.

And disregard Towns finding only five boards on Tuesday. Four offensive fouls — at least two of them were questionable though neither was an outrageous call — limited both his minutes and his aggression. Towns picked up his fifth foul with 4:59 left in the third quarter, playing only 7:29 the rest of the way.

To emphasize how the foul trouble also impacted Towns’ aggression, realize he did not grab a single rebound in that 7:29. Skew the stats however you want, going 7.5 minutes without a rebound was absurd for Towns. He's averaged 0.27 rebounds per postseason minute this year and 0.3 rebounds per minute in his postseason career. He averaged 0.25 rebounds per minute this season and is at 0.32 per minute in his regular-season career.

If Towns can log 32 minutes without spending most of them worrying about fouling out, he should easily clear 7.5 rebounds. He's focused on it in every elimination game before Game 4, and even in Game 4, he stayed engaged enough with the game to show his focus carries forward.

Prop: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at Caesars)

 Karl-Anthony Towns same-game parlay

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 7.5 rebounds

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 threes

Karl-Anthony Towns Under 2.5 assists

+750 at DraftKings

This Minnesota Timberwolves offense hums best when Anthony Edwards attacks the lane. It took some time for all parties involved to both learn that and learn how to accentuate it, but they slowly have, showing some quality offense for most of these playoffs.

Rudy Gobert has little elsewhere to go, that’s obvious. So to avoid having two bigs and their defenders clogging the lane, Towns has to space elsewhere. That is fortuitous, given he's one of the best shooting big men of all time, Game 3’s struggles aside.

Towns has hit at least three 3-pointers in five playoff games this year. More notably, remove the last two games (4-for-13) and he's shot 39.1% from deep on 4.9 attempts per game this postseason. Emphasizing Edwards’ downhill presence — he created 23 scoring chances off drives in each of the last two games — should lead to only more looks for Towns from deep.

It should also take away most potential assists from any Timberwolves not usually in the playmaking role. Between Mike Conley’s usual role, Kyle Anderson’s increased status as a floor general, and Edwards’ emphasis on getting into the lane, Towns will not be asked to initiate any Minnesota actions.

If he racks up three assists for a third time in this series, they will almost all border on incidental.

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