The Sacramento Kings take an overnight trip to the Big Apple to battle the Brooklyn Nets, playing the second of back-to-back outings Thursday.
Sacramento edged the Bulls in a bit of a grinder by Kings standards Wednesday, earning their fourth win in the past five games with a 4-1 ATS mark in that stretch. Brooklyn, on the other hand, has had a day off to recover from a five-game road swing that saw the Nets go 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, including strong showings against the likes of Denver and Milwaukee.
I dig into the point spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference contest and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Kings at Nets on March 16.
Kings vs Nets best odds
Kings vs Nets picks and predictions
Brooklyn big man Nic Claxton is coming off a busy night against Oklahoma City, in which he recorded 39 minutes of floor time and finished with 12 points and 12 rebounds for his 23rd double-double of the season.
Oddsmakers are projecting another solid game from Claxton against Sacramento tonight. His point total is parked at 11.5 (Over -123 - 55.16% probability) and his rebounding prop is sitting at 9.5 (Over -137 57.81% probability).
Depending on where you bet, a Claxton same-game parlay on his Over 11.5 points and 9.5 rebounds pays out around +160. I’m going to play it a little safer and just take his double-double prop at +120, as Claxton’s scoring output has hovered just below 10 points (9.6) since the Nets' roster shakeup.
Tonight’s game with the Kings has a taller total at 238 points which, should it close at this number or higher, would be the biggest Over/Under for a Nets game this season. That means plenty of shots on both ends, lots of points to go around, and an uptick in rebounding opportunities for Claxton.
Sacramento has been roughed up inside by opposing centers in recent games, giving up 20 points and 14 rebounds to Bulls center Nikola Vucevic last night, 23 points and eight boards to Bucks big Brook Lopez, and 22 and 12 to Suns center Deandre Ayton.
While Claxton may not be on the same level as those fellow bigs, he’s Brooklyn’s go-to guy inside right now, with Nerlens Noel’s 10-day deal not renewed and second-year center Day’Ron Sharpe benched the past three games.
We’re not asking Claxton to go for 20 and 12 against the Kings tonight, but he will be able to wrangle 10 or more boards (something he’s done in four of his last six outings) and add double figures in the stat sheet against one of the worst defenses in the NBA playing their second straight game.
My best bet: Nic Claxton double-double (+120)
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Kings vs Nets spread analysis
With Sacramento coming off a 117-114 win in the Windy City on Wednesday, oddsmakers opened this second straight stop with Brooklyn as a 2.5-point home favorite. Early money has shown up on the visitors, with some books dipping to Nets -2.
The Kings’ 117 points vs. the Bulls were the team’s smallest offensive output since scoring 109 points against Phoenix on Valentine’s Day. Sacramento started extremely slow, putting up only 48 points in the first half before erupting for 69 points in the final two frames.
That closing 24 minutes is what basketball bettors have come to expect from the Kings, who lead the NBA in offensive rating and put up over 121 points per contests on the season, including 118 points per road game.
That ability to fill the basket has made Sacramento a solid bet at 38-29-1 ATS overall, including a stellar 21-12 ATS mark on the road. The Kings have also been a good bet on a short turnaround as well, going 8-3 ATS on zero rest.
Brooklyn has bucked a bad start to the post-break schedule with some character wins on the road this month. The Nets went toe-to-toe with Milwaukee on the road and beat Denver earlier this month, but couldn’t come through against Oklahoma City last time out. The Nets blew a 10-point lead at half and were outscored 69-45 in the final 24 minutes to lose 121-107 as 1-point road dogs Tuesday.
Since swapping out Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the trade deadline, the new-look Nets are 7-8 SU and 9-6 ATS. Brooklyn owns a 16-14-1 ATS mark at home on the season.
Kings vs Nets Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under opened at 237.5 points and has climbed a tick to 238 as of 12:30 p.m. ET.
As mentioned, the Kings were slow out of the blocks against the Bulls last night but found their scoring touch in the second half. Sacramento needs to score in bulk due to a poor defense which sits among the worst in the NBA, with the team giving up almost 118 points per road game.
Bookies have balanced all those points by hiking the Kings’ totals on the road, which has made the Under a very profitable play at 12-21 O/U in the Kings’ road games this season, including an Under in last night’s win at Chicago.
Brooklyn continues to tinker with its rotation after the influx of players coming over at the trade deadline. The defense hasn’t been that stout in those 15 games (rating of 114.8), but the offense has started to click for the Nets. Brooklyn averaged almost 117 points on that five-game road trip and showed an uptick in tempo, with the pace rating of 100.31 in that span. The Nets finished 2-3 O/U in those contests.
On the year, Brooklyn is 14-17 O/U inside the Barclays Centers and 6-9 O/U since the Durant/Irving deals.
Kings vs Nets betting trend to know
Brooklyn is 16-9 ATS against Western Conference opponents this season (64%). Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Nets.
Kings vs Nets game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, March 16, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-CA, YES |
