The Oklahoma City Thunder welcome back Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after a quad contusion cost him six of the last seven games. And they need him back, going 2-4 in SGA’s absence. Oklahoma City still has a sliver of a hope at the 1-seed in the Western Conference, but it probably has to win each of its last four games to keep that alive.
Such a streak begins against the Sacramento Kings tonight, Sacramento desperately trying to avoid the lesser Play-In game as it has stumbled to close the season partly due to multiple injuries within its rotation.
Either a recovering lineup or a hobbled one must be trusted in my NBA picks as I dig into Kings vs Thunder predictions on Tuesday, April 9.
Kings vs Thunder predictions
My best bet
Kings +5.5 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
Buy on bad news, sell on good.
The good news in this final week of the season is Gilgeous-Alexander’s return. The sixth-year guard was a genuine MVP candidate before his recent absences. As impressive as the Oklahoma City Thunder have been this season, they've been below average without SGA — their net rating 13.2 points worse than games with the combo guard.
His return should influence a line, and it has as this spread jumped 3.0 or 3.5 points.
That creates value in backing the Sacramento Kings. The public steam on Oklahoma City pushed the spread a touch further than would have been appropriate. SGA may not be at full go, his running buddy Jalen Williams is still questionable, and plenty of the Kings’ recent lull has been more a reflection of the schedule than of actual worries.
Seven of Sacramento’s last nine games have been against playoff teams. Going 3-4 outright and 4-3 against the spread in those games is not terribly concerning, especially not when two of those losses were against the surging Mavericks.
De’Aaron Fox may be an ideal counter-dote to Gilgeous-Alexander, just as fast and a bit more physical. Domantas Sabonis plays a far more physical game than rookie center Chet Holmgren is used to.
Doubting the Kings in this matchup because of the last two weeks overlooks the quality of teams they've faced. Putting faith in the Thunder tonight because of SGA’s return puts too much trust in his immediate health. Betting counter to both those inclinations brings value.
Kings vs Thunder same-game parlay
Kings +5.5
Over 226.5
De'Aaron Fox Over 27.5 points
The same logic of betting the Kings +5.5 applies to betting the Over 226.5. This total fell by two points because of Gilgeous-Alexander’s return, seemingly putting far more stock in his defensive abilities than his offensive addition. That is, simply enough, wrong. Gilgeous-Alexander was remarkably efficient offensively before his injury, enjoying a 57.1% eFG.
SGA may, indeed, focus his energy offensively, which should help cut loose De’Aaron Fox on the other end.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Kings vs Thunder odds
Kings vs Thunder live odds
Kings vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +3 | Oklahoma City -3
- Moneyline: Sacramento +132 | Oklahoma City -147
- Over/Under: Over 228 | Under 228
Kings vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder went 1-5 against the spread in the six games without Gilgeous-Alexander in recent weeks and failed to cover in the one game he played in
- Oklahoma City cashed the Over in five of those six games, as well as the one foray SGA managed.
- The home team has won both outright and ATS in the three matchups between these two
Kings vs Thunder trend
The Kings are 24-15-1 ATS on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Thunder.
Kings vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports OK, NBCSCA |
Kings vs Thunder latest injuries
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