Knicks vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Fournier Lets Loose From Three

What do you get when you combine a struggling New York Knicks team with a healthy Milwaukee Bucks squad playing at home? A 9-point spread. That’s what.

The Knicks are spiraling, have lost five of their last six games, and currently sit outside the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. But is that enough to lay 9 points with a Bucks team that has covered just two spreads over their last nine contests?

Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Bucks on January 28. 

Knicks vs Bucks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Bucks opened this Eastern Conference matchup as a 9-point home favorite and that’s where the line sits as of Friday afternoon. The total has seen a little more action, moving up one point from 215.5 to 216.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Knicks vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Knicks +9 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 216.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 216.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Fournier Over 2.5 made threes (+120)

Predictions made on 1/28/2022 at 2:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Knicks vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, January 28, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Knicks vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Knicks: Nerlens Noel C (Questionable), Derrick Rose PG (Out).
Bucks: Wesley Matthews SG (Questionable), Brook Lopez C (Out). 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-2 in Knicks' last eight games versus a team with a winning straight-up record and 7-3 in the Bucks' last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Bucks.

Knicks vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Knicks have hit the skids, losing five of their last six games thanks to an offense that has fallen flat on its face. New York is 23-26 for the season and sits in 11th place in the Eastern Conference and now, there are even rumors that Julius Randle could be moved by the trade deadline. 

Meanwhile, the Bucks have had to deal with a multitude of injuries and absences this season, leading to some inconsistencies, and in turn, Milwaukee has been a bad bet of late, going 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall and 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite. But the continuity could be on its way as the team finally gets healthy. But will it happen in this familiar matchup?

This will be the fourth and final meeting between these two Eastern Conference teams this season. The Knicks took the first game 113-98 as 3.5-point underdogs, but the Bucks took the following two meetings, each by double digits. 

However, despite those results and the Knicks' struggles, they still bust their tails on defense. So, while the Bucks offense could get right soon, this is a tough defense to do it against.

Mix those inconsistencies, combined with the Knicks hustle, makes it hard to back the Bucks on a spread so large. Honestly, there’s not a lot to like about the spread either way, but we’ll lean towards the Knicks catching all those points.

Prediction: Knicks +9 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While the spread in this matchup looks like a tough one to figure out, we may have a better grasp on the total. For starters, all three of the earlier meetings between these teams went Under with similar totals to this one. But there’s much more.

Over the last six games, the Knicks offense has fallen flat on its face, ranking 28th in offensive rating and 30th in scoring, putting up just 97.8 points per game. RJ Barrett is doing his best to shoulder the load but he isn’t getting much support from his teammates. Now, they face a Top-10 defense in the Bucks.

On the other side, the Bucks' inconsistencies have resulted in their offensive production plummeting as well. Over this nine-game stretch where they are just 2-7 ATS, they rank 24th in offensive rating and 21st in effective field goal percentage.

The Knicks rank ninth in defensive rating over their last 10 games, giving up 100.6 points per game. That’s the second-fewest in the NBA over that span. 

Mix in the Knicks molasses-like pace and you have a great recipe for an Under. 

Prediction: Under 216.5 (-110)

Best bets

Under the bridge

The Under looks like a really solid play here, so that makes the list as a best bet, but there is one more angle we want to jump on in this game: the Bucks’ perimeter defense.

While Milwaukee ranks fifth in the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, that number might be as low as it is because only Miami allows opponents to shoot 3-pointers at a higher rate than Milwaukee.

We can't count on the Knicks to punish them.

Pick: Under 216.5 (-110)

Fourplay

Even though the Knicks can’t be categorized as a great shooting team, they still have at least one guy willing to jack up some shots whether or not they are falling, and that’s shooting guard Evan Fournier. 

Fournier takes 6.9 shots from deep per game, leading the Knicks in that category while shooting a respectable 38.9 % from downtown. He’s hit three or more threes five times in his last 10 games, so getting plus money on Over 2.5 looks like good value.  

Pick: Evan Fournier Over 2.5 Made Threes (+120)

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