The NBA odds to win the NBA In-Season Tournament already saw a ton of movement on Monday night when one of the favorites in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics, was eliminated.
Can the Milwaukee Bucks take care of business at home and avoid another shakeup to the odds after Tuesday’s games?
Adrian Griffin has probably lost some sleep the last couple of nights thinking about how the Bucks are going to slow down Jalen Brunson and the rest of this New York Knicks squad.
The Knicks are one of the top teams in the NBA in net rating and are a live underdog in this matchup, catching 4.5 points on the road (Can I cosign Rory Breasail’s moneyline bet on New York in his Knicks vs. Bucks predictions?).
While I’m sure Griffin and his coaching staff have been game-planning all weekend for Brunson, the betting markets don’t believe they have an answer. Find out what I think about Brunson’s NBA player props in our free NBA picks for Knicks vs. Bucks below.
Knicks vs Bucks player props today
- Hart Over 2.5 ast (+155 at bet365)
- Lopez Over 11.5 pts (-110 at BetMGM)
- Brunson Over 26.5 pts (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made on December 5 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Knicks vs Bucks player props for December 5
Prop bet #1: Look in your Hart
This is my favorite player prop on the board for Tuesday's game, and no, it's not because of its substantial plus-money price, but we will definitely take it. I like this assists prop for Josh Hart because I don't think the price fully accounts for this specific matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks.
When you talk about ensuring someone’s minutes are secure, that is something we have with Hart against the Bucks. Tom Thibodeau will want to keep Hart on the floor because he can be the primary defender on Damian Lillard or even switch onto Giannis Antetokounmpo and still hold his own as a defender. Hart is also a phenomenal rebounding guard, which will help the New York Knicks on the glass against the Bucks' frontcourt.
So why the assists prop for Hart? In their last matchup back at the beginning of November, Hart had 12 potential assists against Milwaukee. That led all players on the Knicks and was one more than Jalen Brunson. Just step back and think about this for a second. Hart had one more potential assist than Brunson, who is trading with a total of 5.5, and the Over is juiced to -140 tonight.
Hart is projected to have 2.6 assists today against the Bucks, which doesn’t look great when we need three for a green checkmark, but it’s the +155 price point that has us smashing the button on this bet. Based on this projection, we can price Hart at +110 to go Over the total of 2.5 assists.
Josh Hart prop: Over 2.5 assists (+155 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: The Lopez stretch
When it comes to guarding Antetokounmpo, Thibodeau is very consistent with his strategy. He is going to have the Knicks build as many walls as they possibly can and play a ton of help defense. His preference is always to have Mitchell Robinson as the help defender on any Antetokounmpo drive to the basket.
The counter for the Bucks to this strategy is that they need shooters on the floor with Antetokounmpo, and not only can Brook Lopez stretch the floor, but he can also help pull Robinson away from the paint. If Robinson is going to be the help defender on many drives, it means that Lopez will have a ton of open looks as well.
Apart from Lopez’s ability to stretch the floor, they will also need his rebounding on the defensive end against a Knicks lineup that is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA. There are just so many reasons for Adrian Griffin to give Lopez extended minutes against the Knicks, which is why I was looking through his props with the idea of placing an Over bet.
I think the biggest edge is on his points prop, as Lopez is projected to score 13 points against the Knicks, allowing us to price the Over 11.5 points at -134.
Brook Lopez prop: Over 11.5 points (-110 at BetMGM) 25% boost available
Prop bet #3: Brunson Burner
Jalen Brunson is seeing a ton of steam in the market, and I don't think it would be right to talk about player props for Knicks-Bucks without touching on this bet.
Brunson opened at 24.5 points and is now trading at 26.5 points, with increased juice on the Over, and a couple of sportsbooks have already moved his total to 27.5 points. A three-point move to the Over without any injury news is pretty rare and a massive shift in the market.
Usually, I'd say stay away from this prop — you missed out on the best possible number. — but I think it's still moving for valid reasons. Brunson is just a matchup nightmare for this Bucks defense, which is incredibly weak at the point of attack. Whether it's a pick-and-roll with Robinson or other actions the Knicks want to run, they can create so many advantages for Brunson to exploit on the offensive end against Milwaukee.
Obviously, with the move from 24.5 to 26.5 taking place, a big portion of your edge as a bettor has disappeared, but it isn't completely gone. With a 26.5 (-120) still available at BetMGM, I do think you have a betting opportunity here with Brunson. Once the 26.5 jumps up to -135 or the 27.5 has juice shorter than -112, I would leave this bet alone.
Jalen Brunson prop: Over 26.5 points (-120 at BetMGM) 25% boost available
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