Knicks vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Mobley Holds Down Middle for Cavs

As the NBA races toward the end of the regular season, the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks are set to face off in a highly anticipated matchup. With playoff implications on the line and key injuries impacting both teams, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors. 

We’ll dive into the NBA odds and analyze the factors that should shape your betting gameplan. Find out your best options with our free NBA picks and predictions for the Cavaliers vs. Knicks on Friday, March 31.

Knicks vs Cavaliers best odds

Knicks vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Tonight’s game between the Cavaliers and Knicks promises to be an interesting one, with the Cavs favored by a -5.5 spread. There are several reasons why bettors should consider the Cavaliers to cover this spread and secure a comfortable victory against the Knicks.

The absence of Julius Randle is a significant setback for the Knicks. Randle's scoring and rebounding abilities are vital to the team's success, and without him, they’ll will struggle to fill the void. With the playoffs approaching and these teams almost certainly locked into a first-round matchup, the Cavaliers are eager to send a resounding message to the Knicks, letting them know that even if Randle returns, their chances of besting the Cavs in the postseason remain slim.

So far this season, the Knicks have managed to secure two ATS victories in their three matchups against the Cavaliers. However, the landscape has changed dramatically, and the absence of Randle will play a crucial role in the outcome of tonight's game.

The Knicks will likely turn to Obi Toppin to step up in Randle's absence, but Toppin faces a daunting challenge against the talented Evan Mobley. With an average of just 6.3 points per game and limited playing time, Toppin will need some time to adjust to the increased responsibility. This gives the Cavaliers a significant advantage in exploiting this mismatch.

The Knicks will have to rely on RJ Barrett to shoulder more of the scoring load, but his recent form has been far from impressive. Coming off a poor 4-for-13 shooting performance, Barrett historically struggles against reputable defenses. The Cavaliers' top-ranked defensive rating (111.5) will make it difficult for Barrett to make a significant impact on the game.

The Cavaliers have shown a consistent ability to perform well under pressure, owning the NBA’s second-best net rating despite being just fourth in the East. They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on two days’ rest and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

The combination of Randle's absence, Toppin's inexperience, Barrett's struggles against strong defenses, and the Cavaliers' impressive recent performance make it highly likely that the Cavs will cover the -5.5 spread against the Knicks. 

My best bet: Cavaliers -5.5  (-110 at FanDuel)

Knicks vs Cavaliers spread analysis

Further supporting the notion that the Cavaliers will cover the spread against the Knicks are a few key trends that highlight Cleveland's strong performance in similar situations.

The Cavs are 19-6-1 ATS over their last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record, showing a consistent ability to outperform the books’ expectations against competent away teams. They’re also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a straight-up loss, so this team knows how to bounce back.

On the other side of the matchup, the Knicks average 115.4 points per game, which could pose a challenge for some teams. However, the Cavaliers have proven to be a formidable defensive opponent, with an ATS record of 37-20-1 and a 45-13 overall record when holding their adversaries to fewer than 115.4 points. This trend further underscores the Cavs' capability to stifle the Knicks' offense, particularly in light of the significant blow dealt by Randle's absence.

Knicks vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under is currently set at 220.5. Given the context of the match, there are several factors that suggest this game is likely to go Under that total.

With Randle, the Knicks' leading scorer, out of the lineup and the Cavs boasting the top-ranked defense in the NBA, it's reasonable to expect a lower-scoring affair. The absence of Randle will undoubtedly impact the Knicks' offensive production, making it difficult for them to rack up points against Cleveland's stingy defense.

Recent trends also support the Under in this matchup. The Under is 4-0 in the Knicks' last four games overall and 4-1 in the Cavaliers' last five games when playing on 2 days’ rest. 

While Jarrett Allen's injury absence will have some effect on the Cavs' defense, it's likely to be mitigated by Randle's absence on the Knicks' side. The Knicks may struggle to capitalize on Allen's absence, as Obi Toppin is expected to continue playing as a spot-up shooter on the perimeter, rather than utilizing his strengths as a pick-and-roll player and slasher as he did in college.

The Knicks recently scored 101 points against the Miami Heat in a game where Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley stepped up — needing strong efforts from tertiary scorers just to barely crack the century mark. 

Taking all of these factors into account, it appears that the Under is the more likely outcome for this game between the Cavaliers and the Knicks

Knicks vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

Under is 4-0 in Knicks’ last four overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Cavaliers.

Knicks vs Cavaliers game info

Knicks vs Cavaliers key injuries

Pages related to this topic