The New York Knicks are rolling, coming off a win over the San Antonio Spurs on Christmas Day to extend their winning streak to five games. Now, they’ll look to make it three wins in three tries against the pesky Orlando Magic.
With both teams locking up on defense and playing a painstakingly slow pace, our Knicks vs Magic predictions will focus on the total, highlighting how the battle between these two teams will focus on the interior.
Let’s dig into some NBA picks on Friday, December 27 with tip set for 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center live on MSG.
Knicks vs Magic prediction
My best bet
Under 213 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This game could turn into a bit of a slog, with the Orlando Magic defense remaining strong in the wake of some significant injuries to its frontcourt and the New York Knicks taking a drastic step forward this month. While the Knicks sit just 14th in defensive efficiency for the year, these two sides are fifth and sixth in December and should do their best to limit the damage done around the perimeter.
New York’s taken a different shape this month, yielding many more looks from outside as opponents look to exploit its troubled 3-point defense, but it’s allowed just 35.3% shooting to rank fifth in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass.
It remains strong at the rim, moving up a few spots to eighth, and that should make life difficult on the Magic, who have spammed the restricted area in hopes of making up for the production lost following Franz Wagner’s injury.
Orlando’s taken the fifth-most shots at the rim on average this month, one spot below New York, putting the onus on interior scoring. Considering the Magic — like most good defenses — have forced opponents to shoot inside the arc more than any team this month, we can spot a clear trend developing on both ends.
Each team has been among the best in the league on the glass all year, and both sit Bottom 5 in pace, so these defenses should have the opportunity to shine in a game that’s already going to feature very few possessions.
The Magic have cashed the Under in four of its last five, and New York in four of its last seven, as these teams rely heavily upon their defenses to win ballgames. That will make for an ugly-looking, hard-fought game in Orlando on Friday night.
Knicks vs Magic same-game parlay
Under 212.5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 threes
Goga Bitadze Over 9.5 rebounds
It’s always a difficult task to seek out player props in what’s expected to be a low-scoring affair, but we can look at two over-looked aspects of the Knicks to profit off a pair of Magic players.
The first man I’ll turn to is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who has been an unquestioned asset for Orlando of late with over 33 minutes per game over the team’s last eight contests. While he’s struggled to shoot from outside over this span, he’s crucially ranked in the top quarter of all wings in shot frequency from the corner, according to Cleaning the Glass.
New York’s allowed the fourth-most looks from this area of the floor, ranking second-worst in defending the corner three, and while things have improved dramatically around the arc this month, it’s still 28th in 3-point field goal percentage allowed in the corner this month despite the solid defense.
KCP has knocked down multiple shots from deep in three of his last four and has taken a total of 10 triples in two games versus New York.
The Knicks’ gaudy rebounding numbers have also been fueled by an overwhelming performance on the offensive glass, and with things a bit murkier in terms of defensive rebounding, I’ll back Goga Bitadze to reach double-digits in rebounds for a seventh time in eight games.
Bitadze hauled in 11 in his only meeting with the Knicks and is the undisputed top dog in offensive rebounding for Orlando with a rate over 12% this year and in December.
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Knicks vs Magic odds
Knicks vs Magic live odds
Knicks vs Magic opening odds
- Spread: New York -6.5 (-110) | Orlando +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -260 | Orlando +210
- Over/Under: Over 212.5 (-110) | Under 212.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line jumped up to 7.0 and 7.5 on Friday morning before some slight buy-back this afternoon returned the spread to Knicks -7.
- While 57% of the spread tickets are on the Knicks, and 53% of the money is on Orlando to cover.
- The total has moved over 20 times, dipping as low as 210.5 early Friday morning before climbing back as high as 214 and settling back around the opener.
- While 81% of the bets are on the Over, the Under has accounted for a stronger 30% of the handle.
Knicks vs Magic trend
The Orlando Magic have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+13.76 Units / 42% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Magic.
How to watch Knicks vs Magic
| Location: | Kia Center, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 12-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSG, FanDuel Sports Network - Florida |
Knicks vs Magic latest injuries
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