After a 2-3 road trip, the Knicks returned home to beat the Heat on Monday, but New York will be back on the road for Wednesday’s tilt with the Spurs at Frost Bank Center.
San Antonio has seen a ton of growth from rookie Stephon Castle, and my Knicks vs. Spurs predictions expect the 2024 No. 4 pick to continue his hot play on offense.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Castle’s scoring prop, plus two more props for a pair of Knicks picking up the slack in Jalen Brunson’s absence.
Knicks vs Spurs prediction
My best bet: Stephon Castle Over 19.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Stephon Castle won the NCAA title with UConn last season, and the San Antonio Spurs made sure to scoop him up with their first pick in the 2024 draft. He showed plenty of promise early in his inaugural campaign, but recent key injuries have offered him a chance to shine.
Pre All-Star break, Castle averaged 12.9 points, but he’s posted 17.1 since returning from the break. Castle’s efficiency has improved from 42% shooting pre break to 44.5% post. He’s scored 20 or more points in just 19 games overall this season, but he’s reached that mark in seven of his last 11 as his arrow continues to point up.
In that 11-game span, Castle is averaging 20.7 points on 47.7% shooting while taking 16 shots a game. That span includes eight games played with De’Aaron Fox, and Castle is the team’s leading scorer during that run. He leads the Spurs in usage rate with 29.6 over those 11 outings.
Castle has played nearly half of the season as a starter, and his scoring has been higher when running with the first unit. In 34 games off the bench, he’s averaged 12 points compared to 15.8 points across 32 games as a starter. Castle has also averaged 13.2 points on the road and 14.4 at home.
The New York Knicks have allowed 22.8 points per game to opposing SGs this season and 23.1 across their last seven. This is an exploitable matchup for the surging rookie, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll cool off on Wednesday night.
Knicks vs Spurs same-game parlay
Stephon Castle Over 19.5 points
Miles McBride Over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists
Karl-Anthony Towns 25+ points
"Deuce" has started each of the last five games for New York, and with Jalen Brunson still sidelined, the former West Virginia Mountaineer should be back in the starting lineup against San Antonio.
Miles McBride has started six games this season and hit the Over thrice while averaging 15.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. The Spurs have allowed opposing PGs to average 39.3 PRA this season and 43.2 across their last seven.
The Spurs are tied for most points allowed over the last seven games at a whopping 128.9. The team has allowed the third-most second-chance points (19.4), fifth-most paint points (54.6), worst defensive rating (130.2) and highest opponent FG% (53.4) in that span.
Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 24.1 points with Brunson in the lineup and 25.5 with him out, and KAT has hit the Over on this line in three of six without the latter. Over the last seven, no team has allowed more points to opposing centers than the Spurs, who have surrendered 27.6 to the position.
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Knicks vs Spurs odds
Knicks vs Spurs live odds
Knicks vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: New York -8.5 (-110) | San Antonio +8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -370 | San Antonio +290
- Over/Under: Over 229 (-110) | Under 229 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York and San Antonio have each covered in four of their last 10.
- The Knicks and Spurs are a combined 75-58-1 to the Over.
- The Spurs have hit the 1H Over in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI).
- The Knicks have only hit the 1Q moneyline in 40 of their last 94 games (-36.90 Units / -23% ROI).
Knicks vs Spurs trend
The Knicks and Spurs have hit the Over in five straight head-to-head matchups. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Spurs.
How to watch Knicks vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | MSG, FanDuel Sports Network - Southwest |
Knicks vs Spurs latest injuries
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