Basketball bettors should expect a very pro-L.A. crowd when Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Dallas Mavericks tonight.
Doncic makes his return to the American Airlines Center for the first time since being traded to L.A. in February — a deal that didn't sit well with the Dallas faithful. The NBA player props markets are predicting a huge night from Luka, with his scoring prop north of 30 points.
If the scorned superstar is going to remind the Mavs’ front office just what they gave away, someone on the Lakers is going to have to feed the beast. That someone is Austin Reaves.
While the world watches for Doncic’s wrath, my Lakers vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks will be counting Reaves' dimes on Wednesday, April 9.
Lakers vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet: Austin Reaves Over 4.5 assists (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
The trio of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves has the Los Angeles Lakers back in the championship conversation.
Not only is tonight’s game in Dallas important to Luka, but Los Angeles is scrambling to hold on to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference with just three games remaining.
The hype around Doncic’s return has pumped up his points prop from an opener of 29.5 points to 31.5, which is well above his recent totals. And despite that move, the betting public will be piling on the Over as well as the alternative markets for Luka’s revenge.
That’s not to say Doncic can’t make good on those expectations, especially if his L.A. teammates take it upon themselves to get the latest Lakers star going against his former team.
Reaves has thrived as a scorer since the Doncic deal, benefitting from a ton of open space with rival defenses drawn to James and Doncic. While his scoring output soars, his assist totals have dipped, as have his potential assist metrics.
Reaves is averaging just 5.4 assists since February after dishing out 6.1 per game before the trade. He’s still topped five or more dimes in 10 of his last 16 games and had five assists when L.A. hosted the Dallas Mavericks on February 26.
Player projections for Reaves all sit above 4.5 assists, ranging from 5.2 to 6.1 helpers tonight. My forecast calls for 5.6 assists, which should have the Over 4.5 priced at -170. Instead, we can get EVEN money on this prop.
Lakers vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Austin Reaves 5+ assists
Luka Doncic 4+ threes
Dereck Lively II 5+ rebounds
Reaves will fuel Doncic’s revenge game with projections as high as six assists tonight.
Luka will let it fly from long range in front of a compassionate crowd in his old building. Doncic is forecasted for four triples.
Dereck Lively’s ankle is stronger and he’ll log more minutes, leading to five or more rebounds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lakers vs Mavericks odds
Lakers vs Mavericks live odds
Lakers vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles -5.5 (-110) | Dallas +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -225 | Dallas +185
- Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Lakers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bookies opened Los Angeles as a 5.5-point road favorite, but this spread slimmed to -3.5, as the Mavericks are still fighting for a spot in the Play-In Round.
- The Over/Under total opened at 228 and slid to 226.5 before getting steam up to 229 points.
- According to Covers Consensus, 66% of picks are taking the points with Luka and L.A. while 60% of total picks are betting the Over.
Lakers vs Mavericks trend
Los Angeles is 10-7 SU but just 5-10-2 ATS as a road favorite this season (35%). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Lakers vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Lakers vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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