As both the Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors attempt to stay alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament race, the two struggling franchises meet at Chase Center tonight in what could be a game short on offense.
Between Orlando’s hard-nosed defense and offensive woes, and Golden State’s sporadicalness, I’m expecting a low-scoring matchup in my Magic vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Monday, February 3.
Magic vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Under 212.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Since Jamahl Molsey took over as the Orlando Magic head coach three years ago, the team has steadily improved by leaning on ferocious defense. As a result, during Mosley’s 3.5-year tenure, the Magic have the third-best record betting Unders in the NBA (158-141-4).
While this season isn’t shaping up to be the best under Mosley due to a rash of injuries, it's on pace to be the best in terms of hitting the Under during his reign as bench boss. The Magic are the second-best Under team in the NBA at 30-20 (60%) and since December 15, they’re 16-7 (70%).
So, while this game total may seem low, the Magic are 17-9 to the Under when the game total is 212.5 or lower. And it certainly helps the case for backing the Under in this matchup that the Golden State Warriors are 22-14 to the Under since November 18.
Neither of these teams has been a consistent threat on offense this year, either. Even with Steph Curry, the Warriors are just 18th in scoring (111.3) and 19th in offensive rating (112.2) behind an attack that’s just 26th in field goal percentage (44.5%) and last in free throw percentage (72.2%).
So, throwing that kind of lackluster offense up against Orlando’s defense is going to be tough for Steve Kerr. Despite an inconsistent season, the Magic’s defense remains one of the best in basketball.
Mosley’s unit is giving up the second-fewest ppg in the NBA (105.4) and ranks third in defensive rating (109.0). Orlando also matches up well with the 3-point-happy Warriors because of its stingy perimeter defense — it allows the fewest threes per game in the league (11.2).
However, its offense is just as helpful for backing the Under with the Magic sitting last in ppg (103.7) and second-last in offensive rating (107.3) while hitting the fewest threes per game (11.1) and shooting the second-lowest field goal percentage (43.7%).
That bodes well for a respectable Golden State defense that ranks ninth in both points allowed per game (111.6) and defensive rating (112.5). The Warriors are Top 10 in field goal percentage allowed (46.1%), and should be able to slow Orlando’s putrid offense for this Under.
Magic vs Warriors same-game parlay
Under 212.5
Steph Curry Over 2.5 turnovers
Buddy Hield Under 2.5 threes
While Curry remains an ageless wonder at 36, he’s still Top 20 in the league in turnovers per game this season (2.9) and the Magic have the defense to apply pressure to force mistakes. Orlando is sixth in the NBA in steals per game (9.2), and opponents turn the ball over the fourth-highest amount against it (16.7).
Curry has had Over 2.5 turnovers in 26 of 39 games this season, including having 3+ in four of his last six games. His backcourt mate should have some issues against this Magic defense, too.
Buddy Hield is already shooting his lowest percentage from behind the arc since 2021 (36.8%) and now he’s taking on a defense that allows the fewest threes per game. He’s gone Over 2.5 threes just once in his last five games and should struggle to again.
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Magic vs Warriors odds
Magic vs Warriors live odds
Magic vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Orlando +2.5 | Golden State -2.5
- Moneyline: Orlando +105 | Golden State -125
- Over/Under: Over 216 | Under 216
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Magic vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Golden State opened as a 2.5-point home favorite, and the line has seen minimal movement, with most books moving a half point at most to -3.
- The Warriors are just 23-24-1 ATS this season, and Orlando is even worse at 23-26-1.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 216 and has steadily dropped down to as low as 211.5.
- The Warriors are in the bottom half of the league betting the Over at 23-25 this season, and the Magic are the second-worst Over team at 20-30.
Magic vs Warriors trend
The Magic have cashed the Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+15.80 units / 17% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Warriors.
How to watch Magic vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, 2-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Magic vs Warriors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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