Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Taking Advantage of Depleted Dallas

While we know the Memphis Grizzlies will be without star guard Ja Morant on Monday, what version of the Dallas Mavericks we’ll see remains to be decided.

There are two massive question marks for the Mavs prior to Monday’s game in Memphis, with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving listed as questionable. The early market moves indicate that at least one of those standout guards will be absent, with the Grizzlies moving from 1.5-point favorites to as big as -4.5 as of Monday afternoon.

Let's look at that adjustment and the Over/Under total for this matchup. I also give my best free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies best odds

Mavericks vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

After squeaking through with an overtime victory in San Antonio and a last-second winner in L.A., the Dallas Mavericks could very easily be on a five-game slide right now and heading back to FedExForum – one of the toughest venues in the Association.

The Memphis Grizzlies own a league-best +10.9 net rating at home this season and are renowned for their strong starts in front of the team's faithful. They're averaging 62.3 points per first half on the season, with a home offensive rating of 121.2 in those opening 24 minutes powering that surge.

The Grizz came out firing against Dallas during their March 11 home date, scoring 71 points in the opening half. They also scored 71 and 77 first-half points versus Golden State in their two other home games this month.

Memphis touts a league-leading first-half net rating of +15.3 in 2022-23, and that’s translated to a 24-9-1 record against the first-half point spread.

Dallas’ defense is bad no matter where the team is playing, but it’s even worse on the road with a rating of 117.3 overall. That includes a sour 121.5 rating in the opening half of those away games (second-worst in the NBA).

The result is a -8.1 first-half net rating as a visitor and a league-worst 12-21-2 against first-half road spreads. So, just to recap: One of the best home first-half ATS teams is hosting the worst road first-half ATS team.

The full-game spread is spiking as the market reacts to the Mavs’ missing pieces, so we’re grabbing Memphis -2.5 in the first half before it gets any bigger.

Pick: Grizzlies first half -2.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Mavericks vs Grizzlies spread analysis

Oddsmakers sent out Memphis -1.5 late last night and the spread jumped to -2 early this morning, with both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving listed as questionable.

That bounced between Dallas +1.5 and +2.5 most of the morning, but it spiked to +4.5 around 1:30 ET with fellow guard Tim Hardaway added to the injury report as questionable due to an illness.

There’s a shot Irving plays, as the All-Star guard returned from a three-game hiatus to face the L.A. Lakers on Friday. Irving played 39 minutes during the thrilling win, scoring 38 points with six assists and six rebounds.

Meanwhile, Doncic hasn’t suited up since March 8 with a thigh injury that cost him the past four contests. He's been back at practice and remains questionable as of 12:30 p.m. ET. But the move to Memphis -4.5 could be a hint that the Mavs' star player is still on the mend.

The Grizzlies have been battling hard since Morant left the team following his social media snafu earlier in March. Memphis is 5-3 straight up and 4-4 ATS during that span, stringing together back-to-back wins over Golden State and San Antonio in its last two outings.

These clubs clashed recently, with a home-and-home set on March 11 and 13. Memphis won both games with Doncic and Irving out of action for Dallas. That included a 112-108 victory at home when the Grizzlies couldn’t cover as 8-point closing favorites.

Memphis forward Jaren Jackson is questionable with calf soreness for Monday night. However, he’s been playing well recently with the Grizzlies fighting for the No. 2 seed in the West, and it would be surprising for him to rest on Monday.

Given the recent adjustment to Memphis -4.5 after the Hardaway news, a depleted backcourt for the Mavericks could move this closer to Grizzlies -10 if Irving and Doncic sit too.

Despite failing to cover that 8-point spread at home to Dallas on March 11, Memphis is one the best home bets in the NBA at 21-12-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Dallas has been a tough nut to crack when it comes to covering the spread. The team has struggled to live up to expectations since the Irving deal, but it's covered in three of the club's last four outings without Luka in the lineup.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis

The total for Monday’s game opened as low as 228.5 points, and it's since climbed to as high as 231.5 before a drop to an industry consensus of 227.5 as of 1:30 p.m. ET.

Potentially being without Doncic and Irving takes a massive chunk out of the Mavericks’ offensive output. The possibility of missing Hardaway too leaves Dallas without three of its top four scorers.

The total for the March 11 matchup in Memphis hit the board at 224.5 before dropping to a closing number of 221.5, with the 112-108 final score just staying below that mark. The following game in Dallas opened with an O/U of 224.5 points and closed at 220, with that 104-88 result also staying below the number.

The Grizzlies have since topped the total in each of their three games after that double-dip with Dallas, making the most against bad defensive opponents in the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors (on the road) over the last two games.

Even at full strength, the Mavericks sit among those bad defensive teams while owning an embarrassing defensive rating of 117.8 (25th) since shipping out some solid defenders to Brooklyn in the Irving trade.

Dallas did steal an overtime win in San Antonio against the sad-sack Spurs last week before benefitting from a sloppy Los Angeles Lakers team during the Mavs' last game, with Los Angeles struggling from 3-point range and going 19-for-31 from the foul line. Even with L.A. leaving points on the table, the Mavs needed a last-second triple to earn the 111-110 win that went below the closing total of 231.5 points.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

Memphis is 42-27-1 ATS versus the first-half spread overall, including a 24-9-1 first-half ATS record at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.

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