The New Orleans Pelicans will hope that a return home will be enough to snap a three-game losing streak as they host the Dallas Mavericks at the Smoothie King Center on Wednesday night.
Dallas has proven it can beat even some of the league’s top teams despite losing superstar Luca Doncic, and I’m predicting another win for it in my Mavericks vs. Pelicans predictions.
Learn why I like the Mavs tonight and see my full analysis in my free NBA picks for Wednesday, January 29 below.
Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction
My best bet
Mavericks moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Dallas Mavericks haven’t lived up to their expectations this season, and that includes the recent run in which they’ve lost six of their last nine games. Obviously, much of the decline in Dallas’ fortunes has been tied to the loss of Luka Doncic (28.1 ppg), who strained his left calf on Christmas and hasn’t played since.
The Mavericks are just 6-11 in their 17 games since that injury, but there have been signs that this team can compete at a high level even without Doncic. In the past two weeks, Dallas beat the Thunder twice, dealing a stunning blow to the team with the best record in the NBA.
Kyrie Irving (24.1 ppg) is now the focal point of the offense, but Dallas has a total of seven players who are scoring in double figures, and players like Daniel Gafford (12.4 ppg) and Spencer Dinwiddie (10.3 ppg) have been among those to step up when needed to score points.
The New Orleans Pelicans briefly looked like they were turning their season around when they won five of six games between Jan. 10 and Jan. 20. Since then, however, the Pelicans have lost three games, failing to cover in any of those contests.
The Pelicans have benefitted from having a healthy Zion Williamson in the lineup for the last two games, an increasingly rare situation for New Orleans, but even as Williamson scored 28 and 31 points on Saturday and Monday, respectively, it didn’t spark a turnaround for the Pelicans offense, which averaged only 98 points in those two games.
Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to struggle on defense, which has been a problem for the team all season long. The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating (117.5) and are dead last in defensive rebounding percentage. New Orleans is allowing opponents to score 117.7 ppg on the year and has allowed 10 straight opponents to score 110+ points.
With Doncic pacing the Dallas offense, that’s a total the Mavericks should easily surpass against a hapless Pelicans defense. I can’t see New Orleans keeping up with the Mavs in a shootout, so I’m taking Dallas to win outright on the road.
Mavericks vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Mavericks moneyline
Over 232.5
Kyrie Irving 25+ points
Even with Doncic out of the lineup tonight, both teams have plenty of scoring potential in this matchup. Dallas has hit the Over in four straight games, while New Orleans has gone Over the total in six of its last nine games overall. With both teams having been playing to totals of 135+ in many of their recent games, I like the Over here.
Taking a scorer here makes sense, as it correlates well with our expectations for a high-scoring game. I’m going with Kyrie Irving, who's taken on an even bigger role in the Dallas offense with Doncic’s injury. Irving is scoring 24.1 ppg on the year, and we can expect him to outpace that total against a poor New Orleans defense. I think the safest play is on Irving to score 25+ points tonight.
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Mavericks vs Pelicans odds
Mavericks vs Pelicans live odds
Mavericks vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -3 | New Orleans +3
- Moneyline: Dallas -150 | New Orleans +125
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavericks are an even 23-23-1 against the spread this season, with the Pelicans entering tonight’s game sporting a 19-28 ATS mark.
- These teams have split their first two meetings both against the spread and straight up, with each winning and covering at home.
- The Over has a 25-21-1 edge in New Orleans’ games this year, while Dallas has played to an even 23-23-1 record against the total.
- The Pelicans are playing to an average total of 226.8 ppg, with the Mavericks averaging a total of 227.5 ppg.
Mavericks vs Pelicans trend
The Pelicans have lost three straight games and are 0-4 ATS in their last four. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Mavericks vs Pelicans
| Location | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana |
| Date | Wednesday, 1-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, WFAA, GCSEN |
Mavericks vs Pelicans latest injuries
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