As the Houston Rockets attempt to climb the Western Conference standings and close the gap with the Thunder, they take on a Dallas Mavericks squad down Luka Doncic.
Without Luka Doncic to penetrate Houston’s top-notch defense, Dallas is going to have a difficult time scoring enough points to cover. I expect Jalen Green & Co. to be too much in my Mavericks vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, January 1.
Mavericks vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Rockets -5.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
While the Dallas Mavericks sit fourth in the West and just a game and a half back of the Houston Rockets, going toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the NBA is a tough ask for Dallas without Luka Doncic.
Ime Udoka’s team is 19-13 ATS this season, giving it the fifth-best cover rate in the NBA (59.4%), and it has the fourth-best ATS plus/minus (+2.9). And without Doncic, they should be able to take advantage of the Mavs’ offense.
Houston has a suffocating defense that’s allowing the third-fewest points per game in the NBA (106.6) and ranks second in defensive rating (106.5). Its perimeter defense should give the Mavericks plenty of issues, too.
The Rockets are holding opponents to just 12.1 threes per game, second-fewest in the Association, at a 34.8% clip, but things don’t get easier inside the arc where Alperen Sengun leads the charge and helps hold opponents to a 49.4% 2-point percentage, lowest in the NBA.
Without Doncic to score on command and facilitate, Dallas’ offense just isn’t the same. It doesn’t help that Jason Kidd’s team isn’t built to win with hard-nosed defense, either.
The Mavericks are allowing 111.5 points per game, 27.9 twos per game, and a 35.6% 3-point percentage — all rank outside the Top 11 in the NBA. With Sengun, Green, and Fred VanVleet, Houston is poised to take advantage.
Plus, Dereck Lively II is questionable for the matchup, and without him, Houston will have an even easier time inside the arc — the Rockets are hitting the eighth-most twos per game (29.6).
Mavericks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Rockets -5.5
Kyrie Irving Over 26.5 points
Alperen Sengun to record a double-double
It’s the Irving show in Dallas with Doncic out. He’s putting up 24.6 points per game this season and is coming off a season-high 46. If Dallas hopes to keep up with its in-state rival, Irving is going to need to continue putting up 25+ shots.
In his previous matchup against the Rockets early in the season, he managed 28 points and a repeat performance seems likely sheerly because Dallas needs him to have a high usage to pull off this win with the way Sengun has been playing.
The Rockets big man has been one of the best all-around players in the NBA and is one of just 15 players averaging a double-double this season. He’s ninth in the league in rebounds per game (10.8) and will get after a Dallas team that’s allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game to centers (15.44).
He’s already put up 22 double-doubles in 32 games this season, including a 17-point, 12-rebound performance against Dallas.
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Mavericks vs Rockets odds
Mavericks vs Rockets live odds
Mavericks vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +5.5 | Houston -5.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +185 | Houston -225
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets opened as a 5.5-point home favorite at most books, with the line seeing minimal movement.
- Houston is among the best teams in the league ATS this season at 19-13, while Dallas isn’t far behind at 18-14-1.
- The Over/Under opened at 222.5 but has since dropped down to 221.5.
- The Rockets are 16-15-1 betting the Over, and Dallas is 17-16.
Mavericks vs Rockets trend
The Rockets have covered the spread in 36 of their last 56 games (+14.00 units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Rockets.
How to watch Mavericks vs Rockets
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-1-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KFAA, H SCHN |
Mavericks vs Rockets latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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