The Dallas Mavericks suffered a fate worse than coal on Christmas Day as Luka Doncic limped off with a calf injury, and there’s no letup with a matchup against the Phoenix Suns on tap tonight at 9 p.m. ET at the Footprint Center.
Even without Devin Booker, Phoenix had a memorable night on Wednesday with a win over the Denver Nuggets, and my Mavericks vs Suns predictions point to more pain for Dallas here.
Check out my NBA picks for this December 27 clash, including a spirited effort from Kyrie Irving as the Mavs’ interim No.1 option.
Mavericks vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Suns moneyline (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
With the Dallas Mavericks’ offensive game plan usually orbiting around Luka Doncic, it’s all going to look rather different tonight — and for the foreseeable future, as the Slovenian will miss at least a month.
Doncic missed two games last week with a heel issue, so it’s not an entirely new challenge, but the Phoenix Suns will pose some major questions in this Friday tip, and I’m not sure the Mavs are ready to answer them.
It starts with Kevin Durant, who should get to his favorite spots against P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall. He’s been a handful in the teams’ meetings this season, shooting 18-for-35 from the floor in two Phoenix victories.
Booker’s absence will be felt, but I trust Bradley Beal and Tyus Jones to step up alongside Durant and pick the hosts to edge this contest.
The Suns snapped a three-game skid with their Christmas Day win over the Nuggets, with 27 points apiece from Durant and Beal, and 13 rebounds from Jusuf Nurkic. Though they’ve struggled on the road, the Suns have a solid 10-6 mark at Footprint Center.
The hosts’ 10-19 ATS record is a tough look, but they’ve hit the 4Q moneyline in 16 of their last 19 home games and that could be their chance to pull away if Dallas’ offense becomes one-dimensional.
The Mavs have had some easy pickings on their travels lately, including stops in Toronto, Washington, and Portland. This is a different proposition. Without Luka, and with Dereck Lively II listed as questionable, this looms as a tough assignment for Dallas.
Mavericks vs Suns same-game parlay
Suns moneyline
Kevin Durant Over 2.5 threes
Kyrie Irving Over 24.5 points
Durant will be the main man again for Phoenix and I’m predicting a bounce-back effort from downtown after missing all five of his 3-pointers on Christmas Day.
He made four triples against the Detroit Pistons last week and he’s knocked down at least three in seven of his last 12 games.
Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving almost willed the Mavs back against the Minnesota Timberwolves in midweek, finishing with 39 points on 27 shots. He should walk into similar volume tonight, and I have my doubts about some of Phoenix’s perimeter defenders in this particular matchup.
Kyrie is shooting 44% from downtown this year, and he can approach this adjusted O/U number in a hurry if the 3-ball is falling. Pencil him in for 25+ points.
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Mavericks vs Suns odds
Mavericks vs Suns live odds
Mavericks vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +2.5 (-110) | Phoenix -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +120 | Phoenix -140
- Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- Doncic’s absence shifts this spread in a big way, and the line (now at 1) has surprisingly moved further in the visitors’ direction after opening at 2.5.
- Phoenix has cashed the Under in four of its past five, but the Over is 16-13 overall for the hosts this season and both teams rank in the Top 10 in 3-point attempts per game.
- The Dallas offense was limited to 95 points without Luka against the Los Angeles Clippers last week and only got to 99 points on Christmas Day.
Mavericks vs Suns trend
The Suns have hit the 4Q Under in 51 of their last 84 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Suns.
How to watch Mavericks vs Suns
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, 12-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KFAA, Arizona's Family Sports |
Mavericks vs Suns latest injuries
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