Mavericks vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Rematch in the Middle of the West

The Western Conference playoff picture is coming into focus, but both the Dallas Mavericks and the Minnesota Timberwolves are still scrapping to move up in the standings. Dallas is currently tied for the fourth seed with the Jazz, hoping to snag home-court advantage in the first round, while Minnesota is only a game behind the Nuggets for the No. 6 seed, thus possibly escaping the play-in.

In other words, plenty is at stake tonight in the second meeting between the Mavericks and the Timberwolves this week.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Mavericks vs the Timberwolves on March 25, with tip set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Wolves were favored by 1.5 on Thursday evening, a number that jumped to -2.5 by Friday morning and -3.5 by midmorning at most books. The total opened at 228.5 late on Thursday and bounced between 227.5 and 229.5 before settling at 228.0 at most books around Friday lunchtime.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves -3.0 (-105)
• Prediction: Under 228.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Timberwolves -7.0 (+150)

Predictions made on 3/25/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves game info

• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Friday, March 25, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Southwest

Mavericks vs Timberwolves betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Luka Doncic SF (Probable), Trey Burke PG (Out), Davis Bertans PF (Out), Theo Pinson SG (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. SG (Out).
Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns C (Questionable), Jaden McDaniels SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games favored at home, including 5-0 in their last five, all within the last month.  Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

One could point out the Timberwolves are on a two-game losing streak but falling by two on the road to the Mavericks and then to the Suns in a competitive game that simply got away from Minnesota in the fourth quarter is hardly a concerning trend. That’s just the Western Conference in the spring.

Before that, the Wolves were rolling, winning 10 of their last 11 and beating the spread in each of those victories. A loss on the road and a loss to the best team in the league should not erase those memories. In fact, this brief downturn could burgeon this chance, creating a slight opportunity to buy on Minnesota amidst a Twin Cities surge since the All-Star break.

Of course, Luka Doncic does not care about any surge. He sat out Wednesday — the Rockets providing a nice chance to rest — but had scored at least 30 points in 15 of his previous 22 games, a stretch dating back to the last days of Kristaps Porzi?gis in Dallas. Notable in that stat? Before Monday night, it was 15 of 21 games.

The Timberwolves slowed Doncic down, keeping him to 15 points on 5-of-17 shooting and forcing eight turnovers compared to 10 assists. It was the second-fewest points Doncic has scored in a game this season and his fifth-worst shooting percentage showing. Luka’s 31 points + rebounds + assists was his second-lowest total of the season, and in his only worse showing, he played 12 fewer minutes in a blowout loss at Denver in October.

Timberwolves sophomore star Anthony Edwards has increasingly taken on the toughest defensive assignments for Minnesota, and he largely succeeded against Doncic on Monday, most undone by a long rebound creating a second-chance three for the Mavs in the closing minutes.

That was how close the matchup was just a few days ago. A badly missed Doncic 3 still led to Dallas points. Otherwise, the Timberwolves just may have escaped Texas with a win, furthering their hot streak since the All-Star break. It is reasonable to think that script will flip now that the two teams meet up north.

Could Doncic use that as fuel and explode tonight? Absolutely. This is one of the best players in the league working with a roster retooled specifically for him. But could the Timberwolves simply match up well against Doncic and Dallas? Quite possibly.

Prediction: Timberwolves -3.0 (-105)

Over/Under analysis

Whether or not Doncic explodes, Dallas has been routinely falling short of the total lately. Seven of the Mavericks’ last nine games have gone Under the total, while six of Minnesota’s last nine games have gone Under, as well.

From a narrative perspective, it seems likely these teams jockeying for playoff positioning are already slipping into playoff mode. The Timberwolves, in particular, know their defense needs to find more versatility if they want to also find playoff success. Slowing down and tinkering on defense now could yield longer-term results.

From a more logical perspective, the post-All-Star break scoring boon may have peaked. It has been a whole eight days since anyone in the league scored 50 points in a game. Yes, there is some sarcasm there. But genuinely, totals were spiking, understandably so for a little while.

They may have spiked too high, broadly speaking. When these two met twice in a three-day span in December, the totals were 214.5 and 213.5. While both teams have improved drastically since then, and trading Porzi?gis was addition by subtraction for Dallas, comparing those totals to this week’s pair of 228.5 totals is stark.

The March boon was simply unsustainable, and that has created an Under market to end the month.

Prediction: Under 228.5 (-110)

Best bet

At the risk of a selective sample set, let’s disregard the Timberwolves' loss to the Suns on Wednesday. Phoenix has found a groove that no one in the league may be able to match. And it is not like Minnesota was blown out. The Wolves led by 13 at halftime and five entering the fourth quarter. They simply could not keep up with the Suns’ efficiency to close.

Before that, Minnesota had won six straight at home, beating the spread in all six. Furthermore, the Wolves beat the spread by an average of 16.7 points per game. The Timberwolves were not simply winning, nor were they simply covering. They were cruising.

The Bucks without Giannis and the Lakers in all respects may not be of the same caliber as these Mavericks, and the same certainly should be said of the Thunder and Blazers, but this stretch began with beating the Warriors — and yes, Steph Curry played — by 15 points to open March.

Let’s bet on that version of Minnesota being viable against anyone short of Phoenix and look for a reasonable alternative line.

Pick: Timberwolves -7.0 (+150)

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