Mavericks vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Dallas Slows Things Down for Dubs

When the Mavericks meet the Warriors, you do not expect it to be touted as a matchup of two of the league’s best defenses, but that is very much the case tonight. These Top-5 scoring defenses may not be the main attractions, but one of them will likely determine tonight’s winner.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Mavericks at the Warriors on February 27, with tip set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

Mavericks vs Warriors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Warriors hit the board as 4-point favorites on Saturday, but that fell as low as -2.5 early Sunday afternoon before bouncing back to -3 or -3.5, depending on your sportsbook. The total opened at 219.5 before ticking upward as high as 220.5 on Sunday morning. It then fell down to 218.5 by the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Warriors predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks +3.5 (-105)
• Prediction: Under 218.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Curry Over 24.5 points (-122)

Predictions made on 2/27/2022 at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Warriors game info

• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Sunday, February 27, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Mavericks vs Warriors betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Frank Ntilikina PG (Questionable), Trey Burke PG (Questionable), Marquese Chriss PF (Doubtful), Theo Pinson SG (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. SG (Out).
Warriors: Klay Thompson SG (Out), Draymond Green PF (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Andre Iguodala SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, that latter stretch all coming in February. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.

Mavericks vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Before routing the Blazers on the Thursday before the All-Star break, the Warriors had lost six of their previous seven games against the spread, with the lone exception being a push. Golden State’s drift toward the No. 3 seed was not as much because of Phoenix’s continued dominance or Memphis’ surge, but because of this lull.

They are, of course, still the Warriors and — if ever fully healthy — should be feared more than any team in the league. But they are not fully healthy, not even close today. We forget by now that Klay Thompson has been back for only a bit more than a month of action, but Golden State got used to him, and now he is sidelined by illness.

Meanwhile, Dallas has won seven of its last eight against the spread, as well as six of eight outright. Since trading Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks have the No. 5 offense in the league in terms of offensive rating, per statmuse.com. Their season rank is No. 17. Clearly, things have improved without the Latvian big man, be it mere addition by subtraction or a reflection of the fits of Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans.

The new-look Mavs are hitting on all cylinders and that should be enough of an edge tonight against a shorthanded Golden State.

Prediction: Mavericks +3.5 (-105)

Over/Under analysis

The Mavs may have found offense, but their season has still been defined by defense. So has Golden State’s.

Since Jan. 1, the two rank No. 2 and No. 4 in defensive rating, respectively. For the season, the Warriors rank No. 1, and the Mavs rank No. 5. Obviously, the total adjusts for that from the outset, but it is still high enough to demand both teams flirt with 110 points.

The Mavs have given up 110 or more in regulation just once this month. The Warriors do so more often, partly a result of their pace, which will not be as applicable against Dallas, the slowest offense in the league. The Mavericks average 96.0 possessions per game, further from the Warriors’ average of 98.93 than the Warriors are from the fastest team in the league (the Hornets).

That extreme will dictate this game’s pace, at which point both these solid defenses should excel in the half-court.

Prediction: Under 218.5 (-110)

Best bet

Fading this exact bet has been a personal favorite this season, to general but not widespread success. With Thompson sidelined tonight, though, tailing Steph Curry is the better decision. He has cracked 25 points in three of his last five games. In one of those instances where he scored fewer than 25, he did so by the narrowest of margins, tallying 24 points against the Lakers.

More pertinent tonight, this Dallas defense is confounding. There is no arguing its success. The numbers are clear, and the sample size is big enough. The Mavericks have one of the best defenses in the league.

But how? There is no fulcrum this defense leans on, no star that is in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. The best player on the team is generally considered a defensive liability. This is truly a system-based success story.

But against Curry, a stopper is needed, and no Maverick is up to that task, particularly since Tim Hardaway Jr. broke his foot. Maybe Dorian Finney-Smith can keep up with Curry for a bit, but his individual defensive rating — admittedly a fraught stat — is one of the worst numbers among regular Mavs.

Curry should find holes in this system, and with no other Golden State star available, he’ll need to.

Pick: Steph Curry Over 24.5 points (-122)

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