If the Sacramento Kings want to host their one-and-done play-in game with the Dallas Mavericks, the scenario is simple: beat the Phoenix Suns.
That’s all that’s on their mind when they close out the regular season at home against the Suns on Sunday. Phoenix’s disastrous season mercifully comes to an end, too, and they’ll try to end it with back-to-back wins.
Our Suns vs. Kings predictions and NBA picks have the Kings locking down home court for that play-in, but Phoenix forcing them to sweat it out a little bit.
Suns vs Kings prediction
My best bet: Suns +15 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
There's plenty of coulda-woulda-shoulda lament with the Sacramento Kings, who were legitimately in the mix for a Top-6 seed in the ultra-competitive Western Conference before the wheels fell off late. It started with a 124-116 home loss to the Nuggets, then Friday’s 101-100 heartbreaker at home to the Clippers.
That dropped them to the No. 9 seed, which could be flipped if they can’t beat the Suns and the Mavericks finish their season with a win in Memphis. The good news is they’re playing the Phoenix Suns, a team they’ve taken two of three from already this season, and Kevin Durant (ankle) has been shut down for the year.
The bad news? The Suns just came out of a horrendous spiral, snapping an eight-game losing skid to beat the Spurs 117-98 last game. That makes Phoenix at least frisky in this season finale, and with nothing to play for, it could make things a mess for its division rival.
However, without Durant, the Suns have been an offensive disaster, averaging just 108 points over the last six games, including a brutal 32.3% from the field. Still, the Kings haven’t exactly been lighting the league up, scoring in the middle of the pack at 116.5 points per game during that same stretch.
While I believe Sacramento will win, that 15-point spread is massive, and I don’t think a team three games under .500 that’s struggled of late should be considered a safe cover. The Kings are also just 19-21 ATS at Golden 1 Center this season.
This one won’t go down to the wire, but it should be close enough for the Suns to cover.
Suns vs Kings same-game parlay
Suns +15
Zach Lavine Over 2.5 threes
Domantas Sabonis Under 13.5 rebounds
Zach LaVine has led the Kings in scoring in five straight games, partly due to his blistering 3-point shooting, hitting at a 51.8% rate in April. He's hit at least four triples in six of his last seven games, and though he’s hit three 3-pointers in a game against Phoenix just once in his last five, the Suns are letting teams hit at a 36.9% clip, the fourth-highest mark in the NBA.
We finish with Domantas Sabonis, who's grabbed 14+ rebounds in six of his last 11 starts, including last game, pulling down 16 against the Clippers. Even though he leads the NBA in rebounding at 13.9 per game, a 13.5 rebounding prop is a tough number to crack, and he’s only been able to hit that mark twice in the last 10 against the Suns.
I think he’ll still hit double digits on the glass, which he’s done in 10 of his last 11, but getting all the way to this number is a different story.
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Suns vs Kings odds
Suns vs Kings live odds
Suns vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +10 | Sacramento -10
- Moneyline: Phoenix +400 | Sacramento -550
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 | Under 230.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Suns vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Suns.
- The Suns have gone Over the total in six of their last nine.
- Sacramento has gone Under the total in five of its last eight.
Suns vs Kings trend
The Suns have gone 20 straight games as road underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Kings.
How to watch Suns vs Kings
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 4-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | KTVK, NBCS-California |
Suns vs Kings latest injuries
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