The NBA MVP debate will be raging leading up to tonight’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Philadelphia 76ers.
Reigning MVP Joel Embiid has been battling some injuries lately, but when he’s been on the court the 76ers big man he’s been an absolute force. However, the NBA odds are saying his counterpart Nikola Jokic is the NBA MVP odds favorite to win the coveted award for the third time in four seasons.
As for this matchup, the Sixers are laying a few points at home but they are in a tough spot here, as they are playing the second half of a back-to-back and are still managing Embiid’s knee injury. Does that mean there is value in the Nuggets as underdogs?
I break down this epic matchup of MVPs and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. 76ers.
Nuggets vs 76ers odds
Nuggets vs 76ers predictions
Whenever Joel Embiid has been on the court this season it feels like he improves his case to win his second consecutive MVP Award.
The Philadelphia 76ers center is stuffing the stat sheet this season averaging 34.9 points with 11.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. Over the last 12 games, he’s been even better, bumping the scoring up to 38.7 points, and has topped 40 points six times in that stretch.
Unfortunately for the Sixers, he’s missed seven of the last 10 games with a nagging knee injury and Philly is 5-5 straight up over that stretch. Embiid played the Sixers last game and put up 41 points against the Houston Rockets.
The only problem with that is that the game was yesterday. Embiid has been playing in back-to-backs this season, but he’s yet to do it while managing an injury and never in a matchup with a guy like Nikola Jokic.
As noted, Jokic is the +180 favorite to win his third NBA MVP in the last four seasons. The Joker is putting up 25.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game while leading the Nuggets to a 28-13 record and just one game out of top spot in the Western Conference.
Now, these are two very evenly matched teams. The Denver Nuggets rank fifth in the NBA when it comes to net rating, while Philly sits third with the general thought being they are pretty close on offense, with the Sixers having an edge on the defensive edge of the floor.
But it’s not like the Nuggets are bad on defense. Denver ranks 11th in defensive rating and seventh in opponent-effective field goal percentage. Not too shabby.
Now that the Nuggets’ starting five have all been upgraded to probable and are expected to play, I like their chances here tonight with the rest advantage. There are not many teams out there that can match Embiid and the 76ers’ physicality, but the Nuggets are one of them. I’m taking the points with the underdog.
My best bet: Nuggets +3 (-110 at FanDuel)
Nuggets vs 76ers same-game parlay
Nuggets +3.5
Aaron Gordon Over 8.5 rebounds + assists
Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 rebounds
As always, our same-game parlay tips off with our best bet, which in this instance is the Nuggets +3 on the spread. Let’s bump it to 3.5 to eliminate the push. One of the reasons I like Denver as dogs here is because I prefer their secondary players a little more than Philly’s.
That means I’m looking at Aaron Gordon here. The Nuggets forward is averaging 14 points per game this season but I like him to stuff the other stat categories tonight. Gordon also averages 6.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game, yet hits rebounds + assists prop is sitting at 8.5. A number he has gone over in five of his last seven games.
Then there is Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets sharpshooter is also hauling down 7.2 rebounds per game this season. And despite having Joel Embiid, as a team, the Sixers are mid when it comes to rebounding, ranking 17th in rebounding rate. Close this SGP out with Porter to go Over 6.5 rebounds.
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Nuggets vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis
The 76ers opened this potential NBA Finals matchup as 4.5-point home favorites but it’s the Nuggets who have seen the early action, moving the line to Philadelphia -3.
Neither team has been a great play against the spread lately, with Denver going 3-5 ATS in its last eight overall, and Philly 3-4 ATS in its last seven.
I believe this will be a close matchup, but I’m giving the edge to the underdogs here. The Nuggets have the edge when it comes to overall team depth, their defense is underrated, and they have the rest advantage.
When it comes to the total hit the board at 227.5 and has been bet up to 228.5. These two teams have not met this season but in the only meeting last season where all the stars played they went Over a total of 232.
Now, the Nuggets have been a great Under bet because of their slow pace of play and are 16-24-1 to the Under. While the 76ers are 22-15-1 to the Over. I would have a slight lean to the Over here as the Nuggets can go blow-for-blow with the Sixers.
Nuggets vs 76ers betting trend to know
The 76ers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 79 games for -19.45 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. 76ers.
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Nuggets vs 76ers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 16, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Nuggets vs 76ers latest injuries
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