The No. 8 Miami Hurricanes look to stay undefeated as they head to the West Coast to face an upstart California Golden Bears team.
The Hurricanes won in the dying seconds last week, but my Miami vs. California predictions expect a decisive victory from the visitor in Week 6.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Miami vs California prediction
My best bet
Miami -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
There may be some negative sentiment in the betting space surrounding the Miami Hurricanes after last week’s 38-34 last-second victory over Virginia Tech, but I’m not sharing that sentiment.
There was also a lot of unflattering chatter surrounding Mario Cristobal’s coaching acumen in the offseason, which I thought was mostly overblown. The reality is this roster is stacked.
The Hurricanes have dominated both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in EPA per play on offense and 13th on defense. Their next challenge is a California Golden Bears team with an SEC scalp already on their resume.
The thing is, Cal isn’t nearly as impressive once you dig around under the hood a little bit. The Bears rank just 112th in EPA per play on offense and 49th on defense despite facing a relatively easy non-conference schedule, and the competition is about to heat up.
Let’s dive into some of those wins.
They beat UC Davis 31-13 after trailing 13-7 in the second quarter and struggled mightily throughout the contest. Next, Cal notched a 21-14 victory over Auburn in Jordan-Hare but benefitted from being +5 in turnover margin.
The Bears' following two games saw them topple a terrible San Diego State team playing a redshirt freshman quarterback before losing 14-9 to Florida State.
Miami should dominate the line of scrimmage. Cal ranks 134th in havoc allowed and just surrendered a whopping 12 tackles for loss against FSU.
On the other side, Cal’s defensive front can be pushed around (94th in line yards, 102nd in stuff rate, 134th in power success rate), while Miami’s offensive line is a powerhouse (ninth in front-seven havoc, 17th in stuff rate, second in power success rate).
Give me the Hurricanes to keep rolling after a slight blip on the radar in Week 5.
Miami vs California same-game parlay (SGP)
Miami -10.5
Damien Martinez 60+ rushing yards
Xavier Restrepo 90+ receiving yards
Miami’s offensive line figures to have a substantial advantage in this matchup, paving the way for running back Damien Martinez to pick up some yardage. Miami hasn't utilized its rushing attack much this year, but Martinez is a very quality back leading the way for a team ranked 23rd in rushing success rate.
The Hurricanes have used a few different RBs early in the season, but Martinez has consolidated some of that usage, handling 14 carries last week compared to eight combined for the other three backs who saw the field.
Restrepo is Ward’s go-to target, pacing the team in receptions (25), yards (422), and touchdowns (five). He has the most advantageous matchup of the receiving group on paper, as Cal’s slot coverage has been horrendous despite facing poor competition.
Corners Ja’ir Smith and Lu-Magia Hearns III are the two primary players in slot coverage, and both have struggled. Smith has a 58.1 coverage grade (per PFF), while Hearns is at 53.6. Restrepo has exceeded 90 receiving yards in six of his last eight games and forecasts for another successful day at the office.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Miami vs California odds
Miami vs California live odds
Miami vs California opening odds
- Miami vs. California spread: California +12.5 (-110)
- Miami vs. California moneyline: Miami -450, California +340
- Miami vs. California Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Miami vs California spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami has covered the first-half spread in four of its last five away games. That line is currently -6.5 (-110) over at BetMGM.
- This is an interesting clash of styles as Miami is 4-0-1 O/U while Cal is 0-4 O/U. Neither team exactly pushes the pace as Miami is 96th in plays per minute while Cal is 60th.
- The Hurricanes run toward the Over goes back further than this season as it has cashed the Over in 10 of their last 13 games.
Miami vs California betting trend to know
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs California.
Miami vs California game info
| Location: | California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Miami vs California latest injuries
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