Two of the best basketball players in the world do battle when Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets visit Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.
My Nuggets vs. Bucks predictions zero in on a player prop for a sharpshooter who can heat up in an instant — one of the key reasons this total is so high.
Find out more in my NBA picks for this matchup, set to tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on Thursday, February 27.
Nuggets vs Bucks prediction
My best bet
Jamal Murray Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Denver Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season, having won 10 of their last 11 games.
Nikola Jokic continues to play at an MVP level, averaging 29.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.4 assists this season. However, the Nuggets are at their best when Jamal Murray is cooking, and he’s recently had one of his patented hot streaks.
Murray is averaging 21.1 points while shooting a very good 40% from 3-point range. The 28-year-old had a nine-game stretch (where the Nuggets went 8-1 straight up) in which he put up 27.8 points while shooting 44.1% on 6.6 3-point attempts per game. That includes five 30-point performances and one 50-burger.
It's funny to see Murray's point prop total sitting at 20.5 in a matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks, especially with the game total sitting at a massive 240.5. The only reason I can think of is that he somewhat cooled down in the last two games, scoring 19 and 16 points. However, Murray was still efficient, shooting 48% from the floor — he just took fewer shots.
While the Bucks' defense has been solid, they struggle to contain opposing guards. Milwaukee surrenders the most points per game to opposing guards this season. With both the Bucks and Nuggets ranking in the Top 10 in pace, there should be extra possessions for Murray to get cooking tonight.
Give me the Over 20.5 points for the Nuggets guard, and 25+ points at +190 is worth a splurge as well.
Nuggets vs Bucks same-game parlay
Jamal Murray Over 20.5 points
Russell Westbrook Over 4.5 rebounds
Kyle Kuzma Over 2.5 assists
Russell Westbrook is averaging 12.8 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game in his first season with the Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Bucks rank 23rd in rebounding rate and 26th in opponent rebounds per game. This should be a high-tempo game, creating more possessions and opportunities for rebounds.
While the Nuggets are an elite offensive group, they do lack on the defensive end of the floor a bit, and you can take advantage of them when you make the extra pass. In fact, the Nuggets rank dead last in opponent assists per game.
Kyle Kuzma is averaging 2.5 assists per game as a member of the Bucks and has dished out three or more dimes in four of his last seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nuggets vs Bucks odds
Nuggets vs Bucks live odds
Nuggets vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Denver -3.5 | Milwaukee +3.5
- Moneyline: Denver -155 | Milwaukee +130
- Over/Under: Over 241.5 | Under 241.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks opened this matchup as 3.5-point home underdogs, and the spread has seen little action at this point.
- This is just the fifth time this season that the Bucks will be home underdogs; they went 2-2 ATS in those games. The Nuggets are playing some of their best basketball right now and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.
- This total hit the board at a massive 241.5. It is the highest total on the board today, but it has been bet down slightly, sitting at 240.5 as of early Thursday afternoon.
- The Nuggets have been a great Over bet all season (34-23-1 O/U) thanks to an elite offense combined with ranking 16th in defensive rating. Mix in what should be a high-pace game, and the big number makes sense.
Nuggets vs Bucks trend
Denver has hit the game total Over in 35 of its last 56 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Bucks.
How to watch Nuggets vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Thursday, 2-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Nuggets vs Bucks latest injuries
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