The Denver Nuggets begin a quick two-game Florida road trip tonight starting off against the Miami Heat at the Kaseya Center.
Tyler Herro has been on a heater as of late and I’m expecting another standout performance from him in my Nuggets vs. Heat predictions.
Continue reading for my NBA picks for Friday, January 17.
Nuggets vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
From the beginning of the 2024-25 season, Tyler Herro made it clear he was ready to take a significant step in Year 6. He’s averaging career highs across the board of 24.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists on 40% shooting from three-point land.
Herro is undoubtedly the Miami Heat's best player, and with the Jimmy Butler drama seemingly pointing to him leaving South Beach after requesting a trade, that’s just more fuel to the fire for Herro to be the top option.
He also happens to be balling out lately, and that’s exactly why we’re eyeing this bet tonight.
The Kentucky product has cashed the Over in points three straight, posting 30+ in all of those games. Herro erupted for 34 in a loss to the Lakers on Wednesday and dropped 32 two nights before that against the Clippers.
The 24-year-old averages 22.6 points at home instead of 25.5 ppg on the road. However, he scored 24 against the Denver Nuggets earlier in the campaign and has also produced 25 ppg in January so far.
On top of that, Herro also averages 25.5 ppg versus Western Conference opponents.
Plus, Denver is considered an easier matchup for shooting guards, allowing 25 points per contest. Herro will continue his hot streak here and put in work at home against the Nuggets.
Nuggets vs Heat same-game parlay
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points
Bam Adebayo Over 15.5 points
Heat -2
Bam Adebayo is the next-best player for the Heat, and he’s versatile. The big man is averaging 15.9 points, 9.6 boards, and 4.6 dimes.
While Bam has hit the Over in points in just four of his last eight appearances, there’s reason to believe he’ll play well tonight.
The ex-Kentucky Wildcat had 20 points against the Nuggets earlier in the season. He also averaged 19.5 ppg versus them in the 2023-24 campaign.
As I’ll get into below, Nikola Jokic is questionable with an elbow sprain tonight. That would also mean an opportunity for Adebayo to show out.
But whether The Joker plays or not, I believe Bam will have a solid game.
When you look at the history between these two teams, Denver has covered in four of the last six and has also won six in a row against Miami.
However, as I mentioned, Jokic popped up on the injury report Wednesday with an elbow injury, and he didn’t play against the Rockets, who wiped the floor with Michael Malone’s squad.
Yes, we don’t know for sure if the Serbian will suit up in South Beach, but an elbow sprain isn’t exactly a minor injury. Obviously, keep an eye on his status, but it does look like he could miss another contest here.
That’s a clear opportunity for Miami to win one at home. They’re 7-7-0 as an ATS home favorite this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nuggets vs Heat odds
Nuggets vs Heat live odds
Nuggets vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Denver +2.5 (-110) | Miami -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver (+120) | Miami (-145)
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 (-105) | Under 224.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat are 7-7-0 as a home ATS favorite.
- Denver has a 19-20-1 ATS record overall.
- The Under has cashed in five of the last six meetings.
Nuggets vs Heat trend
The Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 44 games (+11.81 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs Heat.. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Heat.
How to watch Nuggets vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Date: | Friday, 1-17-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ALT, KTVD, FDSN |
Nuggets vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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