Steph Curry’s Saturday availability looks increasingly likely, but regardless, the Warriors are notable favorites against the Nuggets this weekend, presumably setting up a theme for this series.
Nikola Jokic very well may win another MVP, but if the NBA does not award it to him quickly, he may already be back home in Serbia before they do so.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Nuggets at the Warriors on April 16, with tip set for 8:30 ET.
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Nuggets vs Warriors odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Playoff lines reached the market early, with the Warriors opening as 5-point favorites early Monday. That toggled between -4.5 and -5.0 at most books into midweek before moving to -5.5 on Wednesday and -6.5 on Thursday.
The total hit the market at 225.5 on Monday, falling to 223.5 by that afternoon before bouncing back to 224.5 on Tuesday. It dropped again on Wednesday, to 223.0 where it has largely remained through the back half of the week.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Nuggets vs Warriors predictions
Predictions made on 4/15/2022 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nuggets vs Warriors game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Nuggets vs Warriors series odds
Nuggets: +215
Warriors: -260
Nuggets vs Warriors betting preview
Key injuries
Nuggets: Facundo Campazzo PG (Out), Monte Morris PG (Questionable), Aaron Gordon PF (Questionable), Will Barton SG (Questionable), Michael Porter Jr. PF (Out), Jamal Murray SG (Out).
Warriors: Steph Curry PG (Probable), Otto Porter SF (Questionable), Andre Iguodala SG (Questionable), Andrew Wiggins SF (Questionable), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against the Warriors, including 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Golden State. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Warriors.
Nuggets vs Warriors picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
One game. That’s it. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have played together for exactly one game this season.
When Thompson returned to the court in January, Green took the floor for seven seconds as a sign of appreciation. When Green finally got back onto the court healthy in March, Curry was injured in the Warriors’ next game.
The only moment of those three playing together for a full game this year came on March 14 against the Wizards, when Curry erupted for 47 points on only 25 shots, complemented by Thompson’s 20 points and Green’s six points, seven rebounds and six assists.
Golden State head coach Steve Kerr expects Curry to play, and once those three find their rhythm anew, suddenly the Warriors are pertinent title contenders again. Early in the season, before Green’s and Curry’s injuries, Golden State was more and more a trendy title pick. Its odds fell below +1,000, based in part on the idea of Thompson’s return.
And as he proved he was back in form with Cury’s return imminent, the odds have fallen back down to that range, available as low as +800 at FanDuel. If the Warriors are the third or fourth most likely team to win it all, given the odds, then a two-bucket spread in their favor against the staggering Nuggets may not be appropriate.
Overlooking Jokic is a mistake no one around here will make, but the fact of the matter is, Denver has not enjoyed the return to health that Golden State has. Jamal Murray might be able to physically play but it is far from a sure thing, and asking him to take that mental leap may be too much of an ask.
Jokic simply does not have enough around him right now to worry Golden State on his own. Bones Hyland may very well get hot, and Will Barton both delights and terrifies the Nuggets’ fanbase on a nightly basis, but neither is consistent enough to depend on as secondary scoring options in the playoffs.
That leaves the Warriors’ stars of lore to focus on Jokic, and now that they are finally back together, that could suddenly make those Finals' odds look inflated.
Prediction: Warriors -6 (-112 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Tensions mount in the playoffs, obviously. These two teams have had nearly a week to beef up on film study of one another.
They know each and every offensive tendency they are about to face, and this creates Unders every year. Even offensive juggernauts like Denver and Golden State could be in for a low-scoring Game 1.
It makes logical sense, and it fits with what we saw from the Play-In Tournament’s early games. They went 4-0 to the Under, only one truly spurring a sweat.
Prediction: Under 223.5 (-108 at WynnBet)
Best bet
As basketball fans, let’s all welcome back the Warriors we once knew. Let’s trust they do not need time to rediscover the verve that so often turned Oracle Arena into a madhouse.
The shiny replacement, Chase Center, may not have the same energy, but it is not far off when Steph finds his groove. His layoff has not been nearly long enough to assume he will need time to rediscover his stroke. Curry was injured a month ago as of this tip. Plus, ya know, he’s Steph.
Betting on the Warriors as they come back together feels like the no-brainer, especially against a one-man show. No matter how brilliant Jokic is, there is not enough depth on this Nuggets roster that can keep up with Golden State.
If Jokic is on his own as he is, that should only amplify his usual struggles against the Warriors. In eight of his last 13 games against Golden State, Jokic’s plus-minus has been below zero, usually well below.
Back when Iguodala and Green were working in tandem in the 2018-19 season, Jokic posted a -64 across four games against the Warriors.
Pick: Warriors -6 (-112 at FanDuel)
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