Sunday's game between the Indiana Pacers and the Cleveland Cavaliers will feature two big men-centric teams trying to end three-game skids.
The Pacers' most recent loss was a historic one, being the first of two teams that DeMar DeRozan beat with game-winning buzzer-beaters on back-to-back days, becoming the first player ever to accomplish that feat.
The Cavaliers' recent skid comes amidst the season-ending injury to Ricky Rubio, who played a massive role in enabling the Cavs' erratic and (so far) successful big-man heavy roster.
Continue reading for our free NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Cavaliers on Sunday, January 2nd.
Pacers vs Cavaliers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The spread opened at -3 and has moved just to -2.5. The total opened at 214 and has since moved all the way down to 209.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Pacers vs Cavaliers predictions
Predictions made on 01/02/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Pacers vs Cavaliers game info
• Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Indiana, Bally Sports Ohio
Pacers vs Cavaliers betting preview
Injuries
Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon G (Out), Chris Duarte G (Out), Jeremy Lamb G (Out).
Cavaliers: Darius Garland G (Questionable), Ricky Rubio G (Out), Cedi Osman F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Cavaliers.
Pacers vs Cavaliers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Pacers, losers of three straight and six of their last eight, have had very little to be pleased about this season thus far. The season started almost as poorly as possible, losing six of the first seven. After a short-lived course correction in early November, the Pacers have continued to struggle. Those continued struggles have led to the front office eyeing a potential rebuild, opening up talks for the likes of Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and Caris LeVert.
Sources: The Indiana Pacers are moving toward rebuild, receptive to trade talks centered on Caris LeVert and either Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 7, 2021
Story with @bkravitz at @TheAthletic: https://t.co/2bGjubFtWe
The big man duo of Sabonis and Turner is a particularly troubling pairing, and the two are likely playing their final games as teammates ahead of the trade deadline in six weeks. Regardless, they will have to dig deep for Sunday's game given they will have the challenge of dealing with the big man trio of Jarrett Allen (16.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG), Evan Mobley (14.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG), and Lauri Markkanen (13.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG).
The cohesion of the three paired with the outstanding play from third-year guard Darius Garland (19.5 PPG, 7.3 APG) has the Cavaliers at 20-16 and in current possession of the No. 5 seed in the East. Allen is having a legitimate case for All-Star consideration in the first year of his new five-year $100 million contract. Evan Mobley is having a revelation of a season as a rookie, including defensive play that is truly deserving of All-Defensive First Team considerations.
Despite their very unexpected success, the Cavaliers have once again been struck by a key injury in the backcourt. Ricky Rubio is now out for the season after tearing his ACL on Tuesday, joining Collin Sexton on the shelf. Cleveland has since traded for Rajon Rondo who has similarly elevated teams with his on-court leadership and intelligence. Unfortunately, Rondo will not play a factor yet as he still remains in COVID protocols. It remains to be seen if Darius Garland will be cleared in time for this game, as he entered protocols on Tuesday.
Missing guards is the recurring theme for this game, as Indiana will be without Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte and Jeremy Lamb as all three entered protocols on Thursday. Reliance on the frontcourt was likely in the cards regardless, with the Pacers and Cavaliers ranking third and fourth in the East in points in the paint per game, respectively. In that regard, the advantage has to go to Cleveland given their much higher defensive proficiency compared to the very frequently criticized Sabonis and Turner on that end.
Prediction: Cavaliers -2.5 (-107)
Over/Under analysis
Three-point attempts will have to come elsewhere between Brogdon (5.7 per game), Duarte (5.2), Rubio (5.1), and Lamb's (3.0) absences and Garland's potential absence (6.8). The likelihood that those attempts look less efficient is pretty high between the fact that the primary distributors will be out and the shots are now likely to come from less proficient shooters.
The Cavs already play to the Under rather reliably at 22-14 (61%) on the season and the Pacers are not far behind at 20-16 (56%)
Prediction: Under 209.5 (-105)
Best bet
The Cavaliers' surprise season out of nowhere has netted them a league-best 25-9-2 ATS record. That record includes a fourteen-game ATS winning streak and another stretch in which they covered ten of eleven.
Those fortunes may continue for the Cavs seeing as the Pacers haven't exactly been the type to come alive for road games, boasting one of the worst away records at 3-13. Sure, Sabonis and Turner are more than reliable enough to lean on the offensive end, but it's hard to imagine that they won't just give it all back up on the other end.
Pick: Cavaliers -2.5 (-107)
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