Pacers vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: New York Handles Business at MSG

And so we come at last to the final day of the 2022-2023 NBA regular season. All 30 teams are in action on Sunday, April 9, including the Indiana Pacers who are headed to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks

It’s not exactly the halcyon days of the 1999 Eastern Conference Finals, but an Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks matchup always carries a level of intrigue.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Knicks believe New York will close out the season strong at home.

Pacers vs Knicks best odds

Pacers vs Knicks picks and predictions

The regular-season gap between these teams was wide enough, but that gap becomes a chasm given today’s absences. Both teams are going to be without their two best players — Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner for the Indiana Pacers and Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle for the New York Knicks — but that doesn’t mean they’re at an equal disadvantage. 

The Pacers have also listed several other rotation players as questionable, and it’s hard to say how close they’ll come to running a real rotation at all. The Knicks, meanwhile, don’t have the top-end talent to compete with the NBA’s true contenders, but they are the deepest team in the NBA from three through eight.

It’s been that depth, capped off by the addition of Josh Hart at the trade deadline, that has seen New York finish this season strong enough to earn a guaranteed spot in the playoffs.

The Pacers got a taste of that depth just a few days ago when these teams played last, as Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin all chipped in 30 points on the way to a comfortable Knicks victory.

The Knicks had nothing to play for in that game, nor in their most recent outing against the Pelicans, but they played the game like it meant something to them. RJ Barrett’s return provides them with one more scoring option on the wing that they were lacking on April 5.

Tom Thibodeau is not in the business of throwing winnable games, even if they don’t add up to anything in the standings, and I can’t imagine that he or the Knicks will treat the season finale in MSG any differently this time around. 

To give you a sense of how much better even this limited version of the Knicks is than the Pacers: Indiana has a -12.5 point differential over the last two weeks, while New York is at +11.6.

So while a 9-point spread might seem enormous given the Knicks will be without Brunson and Randle, the overall disparity between these teams recently is closer to 24 points than it is to the offered line.

My best bet: Knicks -8.5 (-110 at bet365)

Pacers vs Knicks spread analysis

There are plenty of unknowns heading into tomorrow’s slate of games, including who on Indiana is even going to play. What we do know, however, is that the Knicks aren’t going to give this game up easily. 

The Knicks clinched the No. 5 seed two games ago, and while Brunson hasn’t played since to rest his sprained hand, the rest of the Knicks' available players have played and given a good effort right to the closing buzzer. Instructively, one of those three games came against this Pacers group, who should largely be fielding the same players when they face off again today.

Indiana kept that game close largely on the back of some hot perimeter shooting, while the Knicks got it done with their traditional combination of bruising interior play, free throws, and offensive rebounding. The latter formula is much more reliable, particularly now that the Pacers shooters will be tested away from the comforts of their home arena.

New York is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games, and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at home. The Pacers by contrast are on a serious ATS skid, going just 2-6 ATS over their last eight despite some hefty lines.

Pacers vs Knicks Over/Under analysis

These two teams played on April 5, with the Knicks coming away with a 138-129 victory. That eye-popping score sets the stage for another high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon, but I’m not confident this game will approach those same highs again. 

Outside of that game against Indiana, the Knicks have made a point of locking in and shutting down bad teams, which has contributed to the Under cashing in 12 of the Knicks' last 17 games against teams with a losing record.

But while the Knicks' offensive performance on Wednesday featured three players dropping 30 points, something no Knicks trio had done in decades, it was Indiana’s performance that was even less replicable. The Pacers shot a blistering 15-30 from downtown, with contributions from a lot of players who haven’t seen much NBA action (Gabe York went 3-6 from deep among others). 

The Over has gone 7-2 in the Pacers’ last nine road games against teams with a winning home record, some indication that they’re good at getting other teams to run with them, Overall though, I expect both teams to come down to earth a little after their previous contest.

Pacers vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Knicks are 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Knicks.

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