The Houston Rockets look for a regular season series sweep tonight when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies.
Save for the opening game blowout, Memphis has been right there with the Rockets in the last two matchups, coming up just a few plays short.
A dinged-up Houston frontcourt is a reason my Rockets vs. Grizzlies predictions like Memphis as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Read below for our NBA picks ahead of this 7:30 p.m. ET tip from FedExForum on Thursday, January 30.
Rockets vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet
Grizzlies -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Houston Rockets have reeled off four wins in a row and 10 of their last 12 through a meaty part of their schedule.
This includes back-to-back wins over the East-leading Cavaliers, a win in Boston against the defending champs, and a pair of wins over the third-seeded Memphis Grizzlies.
A Top-4 scoring defense, the Rockets have found their offensive stroke during this fun run, pouring in 118.9 points per game while shooting 47.5% from the field and 39.3% from 3-point range.
Memphis is coming off a blowout loss in New York, getting smoked 143-106 by the Knicks.
That’s been the outlier of late, as before that loss, the Grizzlies ripped off six straight wins and posted just two losses in 10 games — both coming at the hands of these Rockets.
The Grizzlies are basketball’s highest-scoring team, scoring 123.3 PPG. While they shoot a legit 37.4% from 3-point range, the Grizz love to attack inside, sitting second in the league in paint points at 57.1 PPG.
This game features the two best rebounding teams in the league. The top-ranked Rockets have won the rebounding advantage in all three wins.
But Memphis could be dominant on the glass tonight. Houston big men Alperen Sengun (calf) and Steven Adams (ankle) are questionable, and the team is already down Jabari Smith Jr. for an extended period with a broken hand.
That would be a welcomed advantage for the Grizzlies, who have just one win in the last seven head-to-head meetings, going 2-5-0 against the spread in those games.
It’s also Houston’s fourth game in six nights, and this four-game road trip is their longest of the season to date.
Fatigue will play a factor, as will Memphis’ determination not to lose to the same team three times in 21 days
Rockets vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Grizzlies -4.5
Ja Morant Over 21.5 points
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 6.5 rebounds
It’s been a light-scoring month for electric guard Ja Morant, who is averaging just 18.1 points in January. He scored just 10 points in that blowout loss to the Knicks and has gone Under his 21.5 total in five straight games.
Morant has only topped that total twice in January, but both times were against the Rockets, putting up 29 on January 13 after potting 27 on January 9.
He’s gone for at least 24 in all three games against Houston this season, look for him to find the range tonight.
We’ll finish with Jaren Jackson Jr. and his gettable 6.5-rebounds prop. Jackson has been more of a scoring dynamo than a board worker, scoring 21+ points in five straight while going for six boards or less in seven of the last eight.
He has gone for seven boards once in two games against Houston this year, and four times in the last seven. If Memphis is to break through for a win, JJJ will have to do work on the glass. Considering Houston's depleted frontcourt, the path to success looks a lot clearer.
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Rockets vs Grizzlies odds
Rockets vs Grizzlies live odds
Rockets vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Houston +2.5 (-110) | Memphis -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston +120 | Memphis -140
- Over/Under: Over 236.5 (-110) | Under 236.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Rockets vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis is 7-2-0 against the spread in its last nine.
- The Rockets have cashed the Over in five of their last seven.
- Seven of the Grizzlies' last nine games have gone Over the total.
Rockets vs Grizzlies trend
The underdogs have covered the spread in each of Houston’s last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Rockets vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Thursday, 1-30-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Rockets vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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