The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns will both take three-game winning streaks into play on Wednesday, seeking out a win that would really solidify a solid month of January.
With Minnesota maintaining good numbers through a tough part of its schedule, our Timberwolves vs Suns predictions will highlight how its excellent shooting could prove to be too much for Phoenix given its shortcomings offensively.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Wednesday, January 29.
Timberwolves vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Timberwolves moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
In quite a surprise, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been a borderline Top 10 team by the efficiency numbers over the last two weeks — ahead of the Phoenix Suns who continue to float around the middle of the league.
Minnesota’s offense is what’s set them apart, despite rumblings of a Julius Randle trade and an injury to Donte DiVincenzo. It’s also continued to pound the ball inside even more than normal at the expense of some outside looks, which has been counter-intuitive considering over this span it’s scored at a bottom-five clip at the rim and ranks first from 3.
Some more outside looks would do the Timberwolves well here, but that’s where things get a little tricky. The Suns have owned a solid 3-point defense all season, and rank 10th over the last two weeks while allowing shots from outside at a below-average clip. The good news, however, is that their interior defense has fallen off considerably, even if they’re not allowing many shots to come from in close.
This is a defense that has forced its opponents into a ton of mid-range looks, but considering the Timberwolves continue to refuse shooting from that area I’m inclined to believe they can get enough done here given the Suns’ weak frontcourt defense and their elite shooting from outside.
On the flip side, Phoenix’s offense continues to be hell-bent on taking shots from the mid-range, which has led to its middling efficiency numbers. Minnesota hasn’t allowed very many in that zone in the last 14 days, so while its numbers against these shots don’t look all that good it could simply be that the sample size is too small. For the year, the Timberwolves’ mid-range defense is just outside the Top 10.
Minnesota will have a rare edge on the glass against a poor rebounding team, and despite picking its spots when looking to score inside it should have success there in addition to outside the arc, considering the Suns’ perimeter defense has been just a hair better than average, at best.
The Timberwolves’ recent run, coupled with a tough schedule, makes them the choice for me on Wednesday.
Timberwolves vs Suns same-game parlay
Timberwolves moneyline
Julius Randle 20+ points
Mike Conley Over 1.5 threes
30% boost available
We can deduce here that at least one of our targets should come from the Timberwolves frontcourt, given Phoenix has allowed a ton of shots to come just outside the restricted area and has ranked near the bottom of rim defense.
Both Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle look interesting here, though the former has exhibited too much volatility in both his volume and scoring ability to trust him. I’ll side with Randle instead, who has scored 20 or more in two straight and has done so in five of his last 10 games, putting up 14.3 shots per contest.
Randle’s taken 37% of his shots at the rim, which ranks second in this rotation, and 28% in the short mid-range which ranks first. Phoenix should offer little resistance in the restricted area and plenty of opportunities just beyond, meaning the volume and shooting accuracy should be there.
Then, we’ll look to exploit the weakest defender on the floor as we search for the source of Minnesota’s outside scoring with Mike Conley. He’ll be guarded by Tyus Jones, who ranks in the bottom 5% of the league in Estimated Plus/Minus on defense and has watched his team’s 3-point defense decrease by nearly four points in his time on the floor.
Conley has hit two or more times from deep in four of his last six games, taking 4.8 triples on average and shooting 48.3%.
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Timberwolves vs Suns odds
Timberwolves vs Suns live odds
Timberwolves vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +1 | Phoenix -1
- Moneyline: Minnesota -110 | Phoenix -110
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Timberwolves flipped this line shortly after it opened, moving out as far as 1.5-point favorites before things returned closer to the middle.
- The Suns make up 41% of the spread tickets but 54% of the handle.
- The total hasn’t made it up past the opening line of 218.5, but it did fall early on and bounced around between 217 and 218 points before making its way back up again on Wednesday afternoon.
- The Over has accounted for 86% of the handle wagered on the total and 67% of the bets.
Timberwolves vs Suns trend
The Phoenix Suns have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.00 Units / 41% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Suns.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Suns
| Location | Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona |
| Date | Wednesday, 1-29-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN NOX, KTVK, KPHE |
Timberwolves vs Suns latest injuries
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