After finding themselves on the wrong side of a disheartening blowout in their season opener, the New York Knicks play their first game of the season at MSG tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
My Pacers vs. Knicks predictions expect New York to take care of business and cover the spread.
Read why in my NBA picks for Friday, October 25.
Pacers vs Knicks prediction
My best bet
Knicks -4.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Like most offenses in their opening games, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks had a sluggish start offensively.
While Indiana’s 113.9 offensive rating was even more troubling than New York’s, the Knicks looked incredibly overmatched by a fearsome Celtics offense in a one-sided game.
With that said, both teams looked pretty effective in the preseason, and despite the loss of Isaiah Hartenstein over the offseason and yet another injury to Mitchell Robinson, it doesn’t appear the Knicks have lost much on the glass with a strong showing in those five games.
That’s really all I needed to see, given New York has little depth in the frontcourt but still matches up quite well against a Pacers team that loves to shoot from outside.
Indiana ranked just 16th in 3-point defense a season ago, according to Cleaning the Glass, despite the fact it allowed the lowest percentage of shots to come from outside in the NBA.
New York was able to get many more shots off from outside than Indiana’s average opponent in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals, and it was able to hit at a solid-enough 37.2% clip.
That should set things up quite nicely, given this team’s outside attack only stands to become stronger this season.
The Knicks now have a full year of OG Anunoby after he was brought just prior to last year’s trade deadline, and Karl-Anthony Towns — coming off one of the best shooting years of his career — should fit the structure of this offense much better than Randle.
The Pacers lacked bite on offense in their season opener, enduring a terrible night out of Tyrese Haliburton and shooting at just 29% from outside. In comparison, the Knicks hit on a better 36.7% of their 3-point attempts, just falling victim to arguably the most complete offense in the league.
I expect things to correct here for New York in what should be a convincing win.
Pacers vs Knicks same-game parlay (SGP)
Knicks -4.5
OG Anunoby Over 1.5 threes
Benedict Mathurin 14+ points
Indiana’s 3-point defense was suspect a year ago, growing a bit worse in the Eastern Conference semis. Despite playing just one-and-a-half games before his disheartening four-minute outing in Game 7, Anunoby launched seven times in each of his first two games, hitting seven of those shots in a combined 70 minutes.
The veteran wing was 0-for-4 from outside against the Celtics, but given both his volume and success from outside with the Knicks last year, he should be a good bet to cash in a pair of times here.
Benedict Mathurin was critical on offense prior to his season-ending injury last year, averaging over 14 points per game. As a man who can devastate from three, he should stand a good chance here against a Knicks team brutal against the long ball in last year’s playoff series.
He single-handedly led this team’s comeback against the Pistons with 19 points in 27 minutes, and I expect plenty more runs here, given how well he played.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pacers vs Knicks odds
Pacers vs Knicks live odds
Get the latest Pacers vs Knicks NBA odds.
Pacers vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +4.5 (-110) | New York -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +170 | New York -210
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110)
Pacers vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- After moving up to five points and settling there, this line has been flying all over the place in recent hours. It’s been fluctuating between 4.5 and 5.5 with some big, sudden swings.
- DraftKings is reporting that a modest 61% of the bets but 84% of the handle is on New York.
- Like the spread, this total seemed settled at 225.5 before quickly spiking to 228.5, diving down to 226.5, and settling once again at 227.5.
- The Over has accounted for 78% of the tickets and a whopping 93% of the handle.
Pacers vs Knicks trend
The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q game total Under in 49 of their last 74 games (+20.15 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Knicks.
Pacers vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 10-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Pacers vs Knicks latest injuries
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