The New Orleans Pelicans have dropped 10 straight, and snapping that losing streak will be a tall order tonight as the Miami Heat welcome Jimmy Butler back from a five-game absence.
My Pelicans vs. Heat predictions expect Butler to have a productive night in his return and for Trey Murphy III to continue his hot streak on offense. Read my NBA picks below for more.
Pelicans vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Trey Murphy III Over 19.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Trey Murphy III is enjoying the most productive season of his career with averages of 20.1 points and 3.1 triples across 34.1 minutes per game. Key injuries have piled up for New Orleans, and Murphy III has stepped up in a big way. I expect him to stay productive tonight in a favorable matchup.
Murphy III has scored 20+ points in 10 of 20 games overall. He’s started the last nine games and hit the Over seven times in that span, including two of three on the road. In that nine-game span, he's averaged a team-high 23.4 points and 3.6 triples while shooting 50/40/90 from the floor.
Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are the Pels’ leading scorers this season, followed by CJ McCollum and Murphy III. With Williamson and Ingram sidelined, it will be up to McCollum and Murphy III to carry New Orleans’ offense. Dejounte Murray (16 points per game) is the next leading scorer, but his primary focus is playmaking and not scoring.
Miami’s defense has been a Top-10 unit in points allowed and defensive rating. The Heat have been vulnerable on the perimeter, which is where Trey excels. Miami has allowed opponents to shoot the 14th-highest 3-point percentage (36) and the ninth-highest at home (36.7).
The Heat have allowed the 11th-most 3-pointers to small forwards this season at 2.9, and over the last seven games, they’ve allowed the sixth-most at 3.6. Murphy is taking a career-high 8.3 triples per game this season and knocking them down at a 37% clip. He’s in a great spot to hit the Over tonight.
Pelicans vs Heat same-game parlay
Trey Murphy III Over 19.5 points
Heat moneyline
Jimmy Butler Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists
The Pelicans have won only one time since November 16, going 1-19 in that span. I’ll take the more talented team at home, with superstar Jimmy Butler making his return after five games on the sidelines.
This PRA line is set a bit too low for Jimmy Butler, so I’m happy to add it to this parlay. He cashed the Over in three of his last five full games, and he’s done so in 11 games overall. Butler has appeared in 20 games this season, but he logged seven minutes in two of them. The superstar has played 18 games with at least 20 minutes and hit the Over on this line in 61.1% of them, including 66.7% of his home appearances.
The Pels have allowed the sixth-most points, fourth-most rebounds, and sixth-most assists this season, and I expect him to have a strong performance in this excellent matchup.
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Pelicans vs Heat odds
Pelicans vs Heat live odds
Pelicans vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +8.5 | Miami -8.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +280 | Miami -360
- Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pelicans vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- New Orleans has lost 10 straight and covered in four, bringing the team’s record to 5-28 straight up and 12-21 ATS.
- Miami has won and covered in three of four to move to 16-14 SU and 14-16 ATS.
- The Pelicans have hit the Over in four straight and in 17 of 33 games this season.
- The Heat are 1-3 to the Under across their last four but 16-14 to the Over this season.
Pelicans vs Heat trend
The Pelicans have the worst point differential on the road this season at -17.8 points per game. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Heat.
How to watch Pelicans vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-1-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | GCSEN, H FDSN SU |
Pelicans vs Heat latest injuries
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