Pelicans vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: New Orleans' Versatility Gives Them Edge

The New Orleans Pelicans have found their groove, winning four of their last five games heading into play on Sunday, and now they’ll put their form to the ultimate test against a Sacramento Kings team which has been dynamite at home.

Can the Pelicans find a way to suffocate an efficient Kings offense, or will their scorers let them down as they did on Friday? The latest NBA odds certainly seem to suggest an upset could be in the cards.

Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview and free NBA picks for Pelicans vs. Kings on Sunday, January 7.

Pelicans vs Kings odds

Pelicans vs Kings predictions

The New Orleans Pelicans have some rather troubling names on the injury report ahead of this tilt. Jose Alvarado will miss this game with an illness, and Zion Williamson is currently questionable with a quad contusion. While Williamson’s injury is rather minor, the loss of Alvarado will thrust Dyson Daniels into action as the backup point guard, hurting this second-unit defense.

The story to watch here will be on the perimeter, where the Sacramento Kings are shooting 3-pointers at the third-highest clip in the league and the Pelicans are defending the 3-ball at the fourth-best rate in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass. 

The loss of Alvarado certainly complicates things a bit, but he was also just playing 17 minutes per game and the Pelicans’ perimeter defense extends far beyond him. They’ve allowed just 32.2% shooting from outside over the last 10 games — a stunning mark — though the Kings have shot the 3-ball nearly four points better at home compared to on the road, hitting 38.9% of looks from deep.

New Orleans, much like we’ve seen in years past, has focused on scoring the ball inside with Top-10 ranks in shot frequency within four feet of the rim and from midrange. While Sacramento’s defense has been poor across the board, it has certainly struggled to win the war of attrition inside. 

When you factor in that the Pelicans have been the hottest team in the league from downtown over the last 10 games and should have an edge scoring the ball from close, I think they can once again come up with the goods here as underdogs, where they’re an impressive 10-5-1 against the spread this year.

My best bet: Pelicans +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Pelicans vs Kings same-game parlay

Pelicans +3.5

CJ McCollum 4+ 3s

Zion Williamson Over 22.5 points

+491 at FanDuel

The Pelicans should have what it takes to find some success on offense — something they haven’t done in the last couple of games — against a Kings defense which has been improved this season but has still been awfully generous to opponents through the first few months of the year.

The first man I expect to feature in a big way is CJ McCollum. We noted above that New Orleans has been on fire from deep, and its starting point guard deserves a lot of the credit. He’s shot 50% from downtown over the last five contests, knocking down four triples in each, and the volume has certainly been there with 8.8 attempts from deep on average. With Alvarado out, McCollum should be leaned upon for big minutes here, and with that I expect him to successfully exploit a great matchup against one of the worst 3-point defenses in basketball.

Then, I’m going to bank on a big bounce-back for Williamson, assuming he does suit up for this one. He went for 25 points in each of his first two games against the Kings before a clunker in their last meeting, but with a big mismatch down low I expect the Pelicans to lean on him as they look for a statement win on the road. 

It’s been a tricky proposition to bet on Williamson to score the ball given his volatility in that department, but the matchup certainly does call for a heavy dose of Zion. Helping matters a bit, too, is the fact that Trey Lyles is also listed as questionable and is in danger of missing this one.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pelicans vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams rank inside the Top 10 in the league when it comes to Pace, but the stronger offense — which lies on Sacramento’s side — is in a spot of bother against a team which can defend the 3-pointer better than almost any team in the league.

Sure, the Kings have shot the ball well at home, but in three meetings against the Pelicans they’ve never eclipsed 34.1% shooting from deep. On the other side of the coin, while the Kings have struggled to defend pretty much every area of the floor, this is still a league-average defense overall.

This is admittedly a hard call on the total, but I would lean Under here given the Pelicans’ excellence on the defensive end, particularly in this matchup. New Orleans may be able to make some inroads on offense with its newfound shooting touch and its preference to score at the rim, but historically speaking this season it has not been an offense worth fearing for an Over bettor. 

Pelicans vs Kings betting trend to know

The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 41 of their last 56 games (+29.40 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Kings.

Pelicans vs Kings game info

Pelicans vs Kings latest injuries

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