The New Orleans Pelicans are making a push up the Western Conference standings, and they’ll look to inch further above the play-in line as they face the Dallas Mavericks for the second time in three days this afternoon.
Jordan Hawkins’ 34-point breakout night helped a depleted New Orleans team beat the Luka Doncic-less Mavericks on Saturday, and the visitors should have the key trio of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum back in action for this Martin Luther King Jr. Day rematch.
With Doncic doubtful and a tough stretch of games ahead, it’ll be up to Kyrie Irving to keep the hosts afloat here. He had 33 points on the weekend but needed 27 shots to get there and NBA odds aren't in Dallas' favor.
Read on for my free Pelicans vs Mavericks NBA picks and predictions ahead of today’s battle in Dallas.
Pelicans vs Mavericks odds
Pelicans vs Mavericks predictions
It’s been a rocky January for the Dallas Mavericks, who are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have Luka Doncic listed as doubtful as he recovers from an ankle injury. That leaves the hosts vulnerable against a New Orleans Pelicans team that’s 12-8 on the road this year.
The Pelicans picked up a double-digit win on Saturday despite missing Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, and Trey Murphy III, and I see the visitors dominating here with the cavalry returning. They have a more balanced offense and a deeper bench.
New Orleans is 5-2 this month, with four of those victories coming on the road, including wins over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, and Sacramento Kings.
The battle in the paint could be a decisive factor, too. It’s asking a lot for Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, and Grant Williams to withstand New Orleans’ frontcourt physicality, and I expect Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas to cash in on their size advantage.
Beyond Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway Jr., this Dallas team lacks shot-makers, and, barring a shock change in Doncic’s status, this feels like a great opportunity for the Pelicans to continue their strong recent form.
New Orleans is 7-3 in its last 10 contests, and I’m riding with the visitors to cover a small spread in this afternoon's clash.
My best bet: Pelicans -2.5 (-118 at 888sport)
Pelicans vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Pelicans -2.5
Zion Williamson Under 6.5 rebounds
Kyrie Irving Under 33.5 points
While you can never rule out a Zion clinic on the offensive glass, I’m sticking with the trends here and taking the Under on his rebounds prop.
Williamson hasn’t gotten to seven boards in any of his last six contests, and he’s only averaging 4.8 rebounds per game so far in January. With Valanciunas vacuuming up a chunk of the Dallas misses, I see Zion falling short on this prop.
I’m also fading the Irving points total, given that he’ll likely be a one-man show this afternoon. Giving Kyrie a license to play hero ball isn’t an ideal scenario for the Mavericks but they may have no choice if Doncic sits out and Derrick Jones Jr. — also doubtful — joins him.
Still, Irving will see plenty of Herb Jones’ long-armed defense and I expect the visitors to force someone else in a Dallas jersey to beat them. With the potential for a tougher matchup than we saw on Saturday, and the effects of big minutes during the past week, I like the Under here.
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Pelicans vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
As good as the Pelicans have been on the road this season, they surely wouldn’t be favorites here if Doncic was expected to play. With Luka set to sit out, the Mavericks find themselves as home underdogs.
Both teams have fared well this year from an ATS perspective — New Orleans is 23-16-1 while Dallas is 22-18-0 — but I’m comfortable laying the points with a Pelicans offense that poured in 118 points at the weekend despite missing key scorers.
The visitors have covered the spread in six of their last eight contests, and they’ve won three of the past four meetings between these teams.
While the Pelicans have posted some big totals this month, including 141 points against the Warriors, I’m leaning towards the Under, which is 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10 outings.
Both teams rank in the top half of the NBA in points per game, but Luka-less Dallas limped to 108 points on Saturday and — with Doncic — only managed 103 points against the Memphis Grizzlies earlier in the week. An Over/Under line of 236.5 feels a little too high.
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Pelicans vs Mavericks betting trend to know
Watch for the Pelicans to get an early edge. They’ve hit the first-half moneyline in 43 of their last 60 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Mavericks.
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Pelicans vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Monday, January 15, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, Bally Sports New Orleans |
Pelicans vs Mavericks latest injuries
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