As the Dallas Mavericks continue to attempt to climb the Western Conference standings following the trade of Luka Donic and the injury to Anthony Davis, the team plays a struggling New Orleans Pelicans squad tonight.
With how deflated New Orleans has looked, even when Zion Williamson is on the court, and with the way Dallas has been overachieving, I’m expecting Kyrie Irving and Co. to keep winning in my Pelicans vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Friday, February 21.
Pelicans vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Mavericks -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
When the Dallas Mavericks played the Cleveland Cavaliers hours after trading Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in the middle of the night, Jason Kidd didn’t play his starters, and his team lost by 43 points as a 15.5-point underdog.
But since then? The Mavericks have been a machine.
They’ve covered the spread in all six games since that loss, which includes winning outright as a more than seven-point underdog twice.
The loss of Davis in his first game as a Mav - a 116-105 win over the Houston Rockets - hurts, but the team has covered in the three games that followed losing their newly acquired big man for an extended period.
Clearly, Kidd has this team playing with the mindset that even with Doncic in the City of Angels, the Mavericks are going to give the rest of the Western Conference hell.
Behind the play of Kyrie Irving, the team is seventh in offensive rating (116.6) and eighth in field goal percentage (47.9%).
That type of offensive efficiency is going to create problems against a New Orleans Pelicans defense that’s allowing the third-most PPG in the NBA (119.4), ranks third-last in defensive rating (119.5), and gives up the second-highest field goal percentage (48.4%).
Even with Zion Williamson expected to play, the Pelicans can’t be trusted.
The Pels are at the bottom of the Western Conference (13-42) and have the fourth-lowest cover rate in the NBA (40.7%). The team is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12, which includes going 0-4 when the opponent is favored by fewer than eight points.
Even with Williamson, C.J. McCollum, and Trey Murphy III, New Orleans is 25th in offensive rating (110.6) and putting up the seventh-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA (44.8%).
So, while Dallas is dealing with several injuries in its frontcourt, it has enough firepower to run away with this game against the Pelicans.
Assuming both Klay Thompson and P.J. Washington suit up for Kidd, both are listed as day-to-day; New Orleans doesn’t stand a chance on the road, given the way these two teams have been playing as of late.
Pelicans vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Dallas Mavericks -5.5
P.J. Washington Over 25.5 points and rebounds
Zion Williamson Over 2.5 turnovers
The Pelicans have been a mess trying to stop big men this season, and due to their injuries at the five, Kidd is set to deploy Washington as his small ball center.
With rookie sensation Yves Missi potentially out for the Pelicans, the 6-foot-7 Washington could have a field day playing out of position.
New Orleans allows the fifth-most PPG to centers this season (24.68) and the most RPG (17.35), so Washington should be able to go for more than the 20.4 combined points and rebounds he’s averaging this season.
Meanwhile, Williamson is averaging 3.1 turnovers per game and has had at least three in three of his last four outings.
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Pelicans vs Mavericks odds
Pelicans vs Mavericks live odds
Pelicans vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +5.5 (-110) | Dallas -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New Orleans (+170) | Dallas (-205)
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 (-110) | Under 235.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavericks opened as 5.5-point home favorites, with the line moving to -6 before coming back down to -5.5.
- Dallas is one of the better teams ATS this season at 29-25-2, while New Orleans is one of the worst at 22-32-1.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 234.5 but has steadily risen, and now it’s as high as 237.5 as the tip approaches.
- Both the Mavericks and Pelicans have been solid Over bets this season, with the Mavs 30-26 betting the Over and the Pels 32-22-1.
Pelicans vs Mavericks trend
The Dallas Mavericks have covered the spread in 56 of their last 98 games (+13.10 Units / 12% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Pelicans vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Friday, 2-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, TSN |
Pelicans vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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