The Phoenix Suns need to rise and shine and they better do it fast because their season is quickly slipping away and losing a second-straight game to the New Orleans Pelicans team would be a massive misstep.
The Suns are nearly double-digit home favorites with the Pels in major load management mode. There’s no way they screw this one up is there? My Pelicans vs. Suns predictions break it all down and bring you my NBA picks for this Western Conference matchup set to tip off at 9 pm ET, in PHX Arena, on Friday, Feb. 28.
Pelicans vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Kevin Durant Over 5.5 Rebounds (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Phoenix Suns have undoubtedly been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season, entering tonight’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans with a 27-32 record and are shockingly out of the play-in entirely sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference.
There isn’t just one big thing wrong with the Suns. It feels like a culmination of a bunch of things.
Scoring the basketball hasn’t been the biggest problem, but still, you’d think a lineup with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker would be ranked higher than 11th in offensive rating.
Preventing buckets, on the other hand, has been an issue. Phoenix enters this matchup with the Pelicans ranked 27th in defensive rating. The Suns get burned in particular on the perimeter where they allow the sixth-most made threes per game.
Now, I would be more concerned about the Suns in this matchup against the Pels, considering they just lost to them 124-116 as 6.5-point favorites just last night and New Orleans has won four of its last five overall.
But, it appears the Pels are more than happy to get out of town with a split in this mini two-game set in Phoenix, as they have plastered “load management” all over this game. Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum have both been listed as 'out' already.
So, we might see the Pelicans we’ve been getting for the majority of the season tonight. But does that mean I want to lay 9.5 points with the Suns? No thanks.
Let’s keep this straightforward. You can expect a lot of bricks from the Pelicans tonight. They also have the second-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA. That should mean plenty of rebounds up for grabs.
Durant still plays nearly 37 minutes per game this season and averages 6.0 rebounds per game. His rebounding prop is sitting at 5.5 and he’s gone Over that number twice in his last four games. KD will leave his mark on the boards in a game the Suns must have tonight.
Pelicans vs Suns same-game parlay
Kevin Durant Over 5.5 rebounds
Jose Alvarado Under 6.5 assists
Trey Murphy 3+ threes
30% boost available
Let’s go with Jose Alvarado to hit the Under on 6.5 assists tonight. Alvarado averages 5.5 assists per game as a starter and 4.5 assists per game overall this season.
But getting those assists is much easier when you can dish the ball to Zion Williamson to slam it home, or CJ McCollum to knock down jumpers. He’s also played below this number in three of his last five games.
With the load management absentees tonight, you knew Trey Murphy was going to get an elevated point total. And I do think 25.5 is a touch too high even against a suspect Suns defense. That said, Murphy can still hit three or more threes and still stay Under that number.
Murphy is shooting 37.5% from 3-point range this season and has hit at least three treys in four consecutive games, including going 5-for-13 from deep against the Suns just last night.
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Pelicans vs Suns odds
Pelicans vs Suns live odds
Pelicans vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +6 | Phoenix -6
- Moneyline: New Orleans -260 | Phoenix +210
- Over/Under: Over 237 | Under 237
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns opened this Western Conference matchup as 6-point home favorites which makes sense with last night's spread closing at 6.5. But with the players sitting this one out for the Pelicans the line has jumped to 9.5.
- Although the Suns should have a big edge in this game they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
- The total is in the same situation as the spread, opening around last night's closing number of 237.5. But the injuries have dropped it all the way to 230 as of late Friday afternoon.
- I'm staying away from the total here. That night's game went over by a couple of points, but the Pels will be missing a lot of firepower and I'm not sure it will be enough to get Over even this reduced total.
Pelicans vs Suns trend
The Suns have only covered the Spread in 30 of their last 87 games for -30.50 Units and a -32% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.
How to watch Pelicans vs Suns
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, Arizona |
| Date | Friday, 2-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | GCSEN, KTVK, KPHE |
Pelicans vs Suns latest injuries
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