What do you get when you have a matchup between the best and worst teams in the Western Conference? A 17-point spread, that’s what.
That’s exactly what we get when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder host Zion Willamson and the New Orleans Pelicans.
Does New Orleans have a shot to keep this matchup with OKC close? My Pelicans vs. Thunder predictions break it all down and bring you my NBA picks for this Western Conference showdown set to tip off at 8:00 pm ET at Paycom Center in New Orleans on Monday, February 10.
Pelicans vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Pelicans Team Total Under 109.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
To me, the Oklahoma City Thunder look like the best team in the NBA. Not only do they enter Monday night with the NBA’s best record they also lead the Association in net rating, and have the -650 (per bet365) betting favorite to win MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oh, and they just got Chet Holmgren back in the lineup.
But what makes this Thunder team so dangerous is that they play with the same effort at both ends of the floor.
OKC is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. The Thunder lead the NBA in defensive rating, opponent 3-point shooting percentage, opponent effective field goal percentage, and steals per game.
It has been a disastrous season for the New Orleans Pelicans. The combination of injuries and poor play has resulted in a 12-40 record, including losing the last eight games in a row.
Dejounte Murray is done for the year while CJ McCollum, Herb Jones and newly acquired Bruce Brown and Kully Olynyk are all out as well. That doesn’t bode well for the Pels who rank 29th in net rating. But let’s focus on the offense tonight.
New Orleans ranks 26th in offensive rating and eFG% and with Trey Murphy being the only reliable shooter, the Pels may be limited to 2-pointers in this one.
The Pelicans rank 24th in scoring offense at 110.2 points per game. Their team total for this one against the best defense in the NBA. And in two meetings this season, the Thunder held the Pels to 88 and 109 points. Give me the Under on the New Orleans team total tonight.
Pelicans vs Thunder same-game parlay
Pelicans team total Under 109.5
Trey Murphy Under 22.5 points
Zion Williamson Over 6.5 rebounds
Speaking of Unders, I’m adding Trey Murphy Under 22.5 points to this same-game parlay. Murphy just went through a hot streak where he’s put up a couple of 40 burgers in recent games. But with the Thunder’s ability to focus on him tonight, and being the best team at defending the 3-ball, scoring could be a little tougher for Murphy tonight.
Even with his recent hot streak, Murphy has still played below this number in four of his last eight. Murphy has also played OKC twice this season. In the first meeting, the Thunder held him to 14 points on 4 of 12 shooting and in the second, it was 16 points on 5-for-9 from the floor.
If the Thunder have one weakness, it’s on the glass (which may change with the return of Chet Holmgren). OKC ranks 21st in rebounding rate and 24th in opponent rebounds per game. This is due in part to the Thunder’s high pace of play.
But it also means Zion Williamson over 6.5 rebounds looks like a solid play tonight. Zion averages 7.6 rebounds per game and has grabbed seven or more boards in five of his last nine games.
You can profit boost this same-game parlay by 30% at bet365 tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Pelicans vs Thunder odds
Pelicans vs Thunder live odds
Pelicans vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +14.5 | Oklahoma City -14.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +700 | Oklahoma City -1100
- Over/Under: Over 234 | Under 234
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened this Western Conference matchup as big 14.5-point home favorites. Then when CJ McCollum was confirmed out the spread moved to the current OKC -17.
- Not only are the Thunder a great team, they are a great bet, going 33-16-3 ATS this season. While the Pelicans have only covered the spread twice in the last eight games and are 0-2 ATS vs. OKC this season.
- The total hit the board at 234 and has been bet up slightly to 235 as of Monday afternoon.
- While the spread moved with McCollum's absence but the total went the other way. The Pels will struggle to score and this is a big number for the Thunder to take Over on their own.
Pelicans vs Thunder trend
The Thunder have beaten the Pelicans in eight straight meetings going 7-1 ATS in the process. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pelicans vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, 2-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | GCSEN, FanDuel Sports Network - Oklahoma |
Pelicans vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
