The Detroit Pistons’ trips to face the Toronto Raptors are no longer about Dwayne Casey. Now they're just about two teams trying to navigate their paths forward, one arguably nearing the end of a competitive cycle and one hoping to be at the very beginning of an uptick.
Detroit hasn’t shown any of that uptick yet this season and doubtfully will tonight, considering Toronto is a 9-point favorite against the team across the border. One area of the Pistons’ struggles, in particular, should be ripe for Raptors picking.
A player prop leads our free NBA picks as we preview the NBA odds for Pistons vs. Raptors on November 19.
Pistons vs Raptors odds
Pistons vs Raptors predictions
Jalen Duren was not expected to be the make-or-break piece for the Detroit Pistons this season.
The post presence had a decent enough rookie season last year, averaging 9.1 rebounds and 8.9 games, coming off the bench more often than not, but the hype around Detroit’s development looks mostly at its guards, not at Duren.
Yet, his ankle injury this year marks a distinct delineation point in the Pistons’ successes and failures. Detroit covered the spread in its first three games, twice winning outright as an underdog. Even the outright loss was by just one point at Miami as a 9.5-point ‘dog.
And then Duren sprained his ankle in Game 4. Since then, the Pistons are 3-7 ATS and 0-10 straight up.
He's popped back into the lineup, but the ankle refuses to let him be fully healthy, only once cracking 30 minutes in his five appearances in this stretch. And without him, Detroit has a rebounding problem.
Duren averaged 15.3 rebounds per game in the first three games of the year. With him hobbled, only rookie Ausar Thompson pulls in more than seven rebounds per game for the Pistons, the 6-foot-6 wing playing well but perhaps not the presence on the glass Detroit was expecting to lean on this season.
Without anyone on the opposition grabbing boards, Raptors wing Scottie Barnes should have a field day. He's found at least eight rebounds in 10 of 12 games, yet PointsBet has his rebounding prop set at only 7.5.
Plenty of Toronto players should feast on the boards — four average 6.6 or more, but led by Barnes’s 9.1 — but this prop is the most mispriced and gives a chance to take advantage of this particular Pistons’ weakness.
My best bet: Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (-125 at PointsBet)
Pistons vs Raptors same-game parlay
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds
Raptors -9
Under 219.5
Detroit’s season may be in free fall, and the sooner that is noticed, the more value that can be reaped from it. The Pistons have lost 10 straight games, and only two of those have been within two possessions. Detroit is not just losing, it's getting blown out.
Taking this Under, instead of a first-half Under, is a lean toward the usual requirement of fading NBA offenses in afternoon games.
A 4:00 p.m. ET tip is not truly an afternoon game, hence the lean rather than the all-out commitment, but a probable sluggish start should combine with Toronto’s overall defensive strength, along with the Raptors’ offensive ineptitude, to keep this Under its modest total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pistons vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened on Saturday with Toronto just a 5.5-point favorite, steadily ticking up to -7 by the end of the night and to -9 by early Sunday morning. Since Duren first injured his ankle, Detroit is 3-3 ATS as an underdog of at least three possessions.
The total opened at 217 before jumping up to 219.5 or 220, depending on your book, on Sunday morning.
Both the spread and the total moves can be ascribed to OG Anunoby’s availability, a Sunday morning upgrade to probable (finger laceration).
Pistons vs Raptors betting trend to know
Three of Toronto’s last four games have gone Under their totals by an average of 11.7 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Raptors.
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Pistons vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, November 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
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