Every NBA team is in action for the final day of the regular season which means plenty of player props to pick from.
However, that massive menu comes with plethora of pitfalls. It’s closing time for a good chunk of franchises and other teams are planning for the postseason, so motives and motivation are a mixed bag this Sunday.
We scour the sizable 15-game slate for our best free NBA player prop picks for April 10.
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NBA player props for April 10
Picks made on 4/10/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
Bump the slump
Charlotte Hornets guard Terry Rozier is mired in a nasty shooting slump at the worst possible time. With the Hornets heading to the play-in tournament, Rozier has gone ice cold from beyond the arc in April.
In four games this month, he’s a collective 5 for 24 from distance – just 20.8% after shooting close to 43% from 3-point range from the All-Star break to the end of March. Rozier has made more than one 3-pointer just once in his last five outings going back to March 30.
Today’s finale with the Washington Wizards could just be what Rozier needs to shake this slump. The Wizards have nothing to play for and have watched their last four foes hoist up an average of 41 3-point attempts per game, connecting on better than 42% of those long-range looks.
Bookies have a blowout pegged for this game, setting Charlotte as 13-point home chalk, which means plenty of potential points on the board for the Bugs. The Hornets aren’t afraid to let it fly from deep either, ranked out sixth in 3-point attempts.
Rozier is much more comfortable playing at home, shooting 38% from distance for an average of 3.3 3-pointers on 8.7 attempts per game inside the Spectrum Center. Charlotte’s recent road-heavy sked has played its role in his cold shooting, playing five of its last seven away from home.
In his most recent meeting with Washington, Rozier made 5 of 9 from outside in January and went an incredible 8 for 11 when the Hornets played the Wizards on November 22. On the season, he’s 19 for 27 from 3-point land in three matchups with the Wiz.
Pick: Terry Rozier Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+114)
South Beach diet
Sunday’s All-Florida finale versus the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic will have fewer stars than a Hallmark Channel Xmas special with both teams expected to limit their starters, but for contrasting reasons.
Miami has clinched the top seed in the East and can opt to rest up for the postseason while Orlando putting the cherry on top of its late-season tank job by sitting its standouts. That has player props few and far between, but one market on the board is the assist total for Miami veteran point guard Kyle Lowry, with that prop at 6.5 assists.
Lowry averages 7.5 assists per game on the season but a bet on the Under prop is based on two factors Sunday: 1. Lowry could play a half of basketball before also getting yanked, in order to protect the PG from any potential injury before the postseason. 2. Lowry could be the Heat’s main scoring threat with Jimmy Butler out and other Miami standouts taking a seat.
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra told the media he’s on the fence about resting players, knowing the play-in tournament delays the start of the first round and puts a week of inactivity between this game and the Heat’s postseason opener.
Given that tidbit of coach speak, we could see Lowry on the court to start the game. But this spread is flirting with double figures and with Orlando trying to sway the ping-pong balls, a blowout would give Spoelstra a welcome green light to pull his best, including limiting Lowry’s work.
Pick: Kyle Lowry Under 6.5 assists (-105)
Lone Star standoff
The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs wrap the regular season against each other Sunday, with Dallas still jockeying for postseason position while San Antonio is secured in the 10th spot and locked into the play-in tournament.
While the game doesn’t mean much to the Spurs, head coach Gregg Popovich knows the importance of momentum and intensity, especially when switching gears to the postseason – be it a play-in game or full-blown tournament tilts.
San Antonio has shown a level of intensity, at least on defense in recent outings. Outside of allowing 127 points at high-scoring Minnesota, the Spurs have given up tallies of 100, 97, and 92 points in three of their last four games. They own a defensive rating of 104.0 in that stretch and have limited opponents to just 41.2% from the field.
Those forced misses are good, but the Spurs aren’t a great rebounding team and often get roughed up on the offensive glass. San Antonio already allows foes to wrangle 11.4 offensive boards per game (second most in the NBA) and has allowed 13 offensive rebounds in each of its last two outings.
Dallas center Dwight Powell isn’t the most dominating guy on the glass, pulling in an average of fewer than five boards per outing, but he’s very effective on the offensive glass (2.1 OREB per game) and with fellow big Maxi Kleber out, Powell is the Mavs’ top rebounder in the frontcourt and is averaging 7.1 rebounds in four games this month.
Pick: Dwight Powell Over 7.5 rebounds (+110)
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