We've got four playoff games on the NBA betting board this Saturday and we're focusing on a trio of later games with our favorite NBA player prop bets of the day.
Sometimes the best value comes in fading the league's biggest stars under the brightest lights and that's what we're doing today as we bet against Rudy Gobert, Kevin Durant, and Ja Morant.
Read on to find out why we're playing contrarian in our best free NBA player prop picks for Saturday, April 23.
NBA player props for April 23
- Gobert Under 28.5 pts + rebs (-115)
- Durant Over 3.5 turnovers (-145)
- Morant Under 1.5 3-pointers made (+110)
Picks made on 4/23/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
Stifled tower
The NBA playoffs are all about matchups and adjustments and it will be interesting to see how the Jazz use Rudy Gobert in Game 4 tonight. Gobert has been neutralized on both ends of the floor in this series and has been especially exploited offensively due to his limitations.
Some of Utah's best success in its Game 3 loss on Thursday came when it went to a small-ball lineup and used Eric Paschall as its five. With Luka Doncic looking "optimistic" to make his series debut for Dallas today, Utah might be better off playing small ball to help with spacing and perimeter defense.
Gobert had just five and eight points in the first two games of this series and while he chipped in with 15 in Game 3 he had to go a perfect 6-6 from the field in just 29 minutes to post that line.
With the Over/Under on Gobert's points plus rebounds total set at 28.5, and the center not going over 25 in his previous four games against the Mavs, we're betting the Under.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Under 28.5 pts + rebs (-115 at BetMGM)
Burner possessions
The Nets desperately need a win as they head back to Brooklyn down 2-0 in their series against the Celtics. The Nets collapsed in the fourth quarter on Wednesday night and superstar Kevin Durant has been locked up in the series.
KD went just 4-17 from the field in Game 2 after shooting 9-24 in Game 1. He also was a non-factor on the boards and turned the ball over six times in each contest. Durant is bound to break out of his shooting slump eventually, he's simply too talented offensively to be shut down over the entire series.
We're less confident in him cutting down on those turnovers, at least until Ben Simmons returns in Game 4 to share some of the ball-handling duties. Keep in mind that while he didn't struggle to score during the regular season, turnovers have been a consistent problem as he tries to carry the burden for Brooklyn.
Durant has turned the ball over at least four times in 16 of his last 20 games. The only four contests during that span where he turned the ball over fewer than four times came against the Rockets, Pistons, Hornets, and Magic.
The Celtics are just a wee bit more intense on defense than those squads. It's juiced to -145 but the Over 3.5 TOs looks like a gimme.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 3.5 turnovers (-145 at bet365)
Twin City brick factory
If you haven't heard by now, Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant led the league in points per game in the paint this season, the first time a guard has done so since the NBA started tracking that stat. OK, I can feel your eyes rolling, we've definitely all heard that by now.
What that number also indicates, however, is that unlike many of his backcourt peers, Morant doesn't take many shots from outside the arc. Morant went 1-3 from deep in Game 3 and while he hit a pair of treys in Game 2, he didn't have a single 3-pointer in the first game of the series.
The Over/Under on Morant's 3-pointers made is set at 1.5 with the Under paying out at plus money. That's a bit surprising, given his track record.
In a total of 60 regular season and playoff games this season, Morant has hit fewer than 1.5 three-pointers in 34 contests, a 56.7% rate. That rate has been even higher in recent months with Ja going Under that total in 14 of his last 22 games (63.6%).
If we're getting plus money at that number we're going to keep taking it until he changes his playing style.
Pick: Ja Morant Under 1.5 3-pointers made (+110 at FanDuel)
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