Best NBA Player Props Today: Chef Curry Carves Up Phoenix Defense

Prop bet #1: Run it back!

On Friday, I played a very similar line on Stephen Curry to go Over his assists total of 4.5 at +125, and we were way out in front of the market he was trading in the -130 range by late afternoon. Unfortunately, the CLV didn't equate to a green checkmark, as he finished with just three assists against OKC.

While attacking this number on Curry cost us a unit on Friday, I'm fully prepared to run it back on Tuesday, and here's why. OKC was blitzing Curry on many of his pick-and-rolls, meaning he was getting the ball to Draymond Green as the roller. When the defensive rotation came over to Green, he was then in a position to find someone for an assist.

Essentially, the Thunder were able to be so aggressive in how they guarded Curry because of the athleticism of Chet Holmgren, and as a result, Curry's assists were becoming Green's assists.

This is not how the Phoenix Suns guarded Curry in their last meeting. Unlike Holmgren, Jusuf Nurkic needs to play a little deeper when picking up Curry in the pick-and-roll, just to ensure he can contain him off the dribble.

What this means for Curry is that, while the Suns are going to come with a double team, Nurkic is at least deep enough to the point where Curry can create and find other scorers off this action.

I know we took a loss on this prop on Friday, but I have no problem running this back, especially considering we're getting an extra five cents on the price. Curry is projected to have 4.9 assists against the Suns, which means we can price the over 4.5 assists at -115.

Stephen Curry prop: Over 4.5 assists (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Tatum's total too low

The sportsbooks have a ton of factors to consider when adjusting Jayson Tatum's points prop for Tuesday's matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I believe they might've missed the mark just a bit. 

Tatum's points prop was recently trading at a much higher total because of the NBA In-Season Tournament and the elevated minutes. Now, they have to bring that total down to reflect his minutes for a regular season game, but they also have to factor in the return of Kristaps Porzingis to the lineup and the injury to Evan Mobley on the other side.

Mobley is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and is a significant loss for the Cavs against this team. There are only so many players who can match the size and speed of Tatum, and Mobley is one of them. He wasn't always the primary defender, but his absence opens the door for the Celtics to create more mismatches for Tatum on the offensive end. 

His absence also means the Cavaliers will have less rim protection, and that will be magnified with Porzingis in the lineup because Jarrett Allen will be drawn out of the paint by Porzingis' 3-point shooting.

Tatum is projected to score 27.6 points on Tuesday, meaning we can price the Over 25.5 points at -140. That projection gives this bet a positive expected value of 7%.

Jayson Tatum prop: Over 25.5 points (-115 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Joke's on Joker

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are on the back end of a back-to-back as they took on the Hawks in Atlanta last night. The Nuggets won 129-122 and Jokic led all Nuggets players with 36 minutes played. He was also the only one to surpass 30.

That being said, there are some red flags on Tuesday suggesting Jokic could see reduced minutes against the Chicago Bulls, and it's not as if his points total is any lower to account for this. Jokic closed with a total of 28.5 in his last two games but is seeing a 29.5-point total on Tuesday.

The Nuggets only have one day off after their game against Chicago, as they play the Nets on Thursday. The Nuggets are also trading as a 7.5-point favorite, so on top of the awkward spot in the schedule, the actual flow of the game could allow for Michael Malone to reduce his minutes.

Not only do I expect Jokic to see fewer minutes just because of the spot on the schedule, but Nikola Vucevic and the Chicago Bulls have historically played Jokic pretty tough in their last few matchups. Vucevic isn't known for his defense at all, but he has held Jokic Under this total in their last four head-to-head matchups, and Jokic is only averaging 17.8 points per game in these games.

On Tuesday, Jokic is projected to score 28.1 points against Vucevic and the Bulls, which allows us to price the under 29.5 points at -145. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 13%.

Nikola Jokic prop: Under 29.5 points (-110 +121 at BetMGM with 33% profit boost)