Best NBA Player Props Today: A Dime a Dozen

Prop bet #1: De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox is one of my favorite guards to watch in the NBA, but 30.5 points is just too high, especially against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Fox is having a career year, averaging 29.5 points per game, and this total is still one point higher than that number. Just step back and think about this for a second. Fox has been trading more in that 27.5 window, and this will be the first time his total touches 30.5.

Another key factor as to why I like the Under on Fox is not only that this total is high at 30.5, but the Thunder have options as to who can guard Fox. Lu Dort isn't on the injury report on Thursday and is expected to play, and you also have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is grading out as a top defender as well.

For Fox, a lot of his offense comes in the midrange right around the rim. He is phenomenal at stopping on a dime and pulling up for the short jumper. Not only do the Thunder have Dort and SGA on the perimeter who can guard Fox, but you also have Jalen Williams and his 7'2 wingspan who can disrupt this shot for Fox in the lane, not to mention the shot-blocking ability of Chet Holmgren.

When you look at the Thunder roster, they have several options for who and how they can guard Fox. This means Fox will have a hard time creating any mismatches for himself, which is a big reason why I like the Under.

Fox is projected to score 28.8 points against the Thunder, which allows us to price the Under 30.5 points at -150.

De'Aaron Fox prop: Under 30.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: James Harden

A couple of points to consider with this James Harden pick; first, I am pricing and recommending this bet under the assumption that Paul George is playing. George left the Los Angeles Clippers' last game at halftime due to a groin injury, but all indications suggest it's not serious, and he is expected to play against the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. I mention this because if I like this bet with George in the lineup, imagine how I will feel about it if we find out George will miss the game.

When the Clippers faced the Warriors in a doubleheader at the end of November, Harden had 14 and 18 potential assists in each of those games. Seeing that the opportunity for assists was substantial in both games is very encouraging. Additionally, no one received more passes than Harden in both of these games. Harden was actively involved in the Clippers' offense against the Warriors both times, which is a positive sign.

Specifically regarding the total of 7.5 assists at -120 for Thursday's game, Harden has gone Under this number in each of his last two games with seven assists in both. This has kept the juice a little longer than it should be on this prop, presenting us with an opportunity to strike.

Harden is projected to drop 8.5 dimes against the Warriors on Thursday, allowing us to price the Over 7.5 assists at -155. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 11%.

James Harden prop: Over 7.5 assists (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Josh Giddey

A staple in last year's assist bets, Josh Giddey hasn't shown as much value this year in the numbers, but that all changes on Thursday as he makes his debut for me in this market. Yes, I know his minutes are down. Giddey is playing closer to 25 minutes per game than 30 minutes per game, but that is all factored into the equation here.

Over his last three games, Giddey is averaging 10 potential assists per game in only 24.5 minutes of playing time. So when you look at Giddey's minutes and how they are down this season, we really don't need them to increase to win this bet. What he is accomplishing in those minutes is more than sufficient to make the Over 4.5 assists (+130) worth a wager.

Even if you quickly pull up his box scores, you'll see he had three straight games of only one assist from November 28 to December 2. This could be discouraging for a lot of bettors and pull them off this bet, but in those three games, Giddey averaged 5.7 potential assists per game. So it's not like he wasn't involved in the offense, as it might appear on the surface.

The Sacramento Kings play a lineup with more speed and a ton of wing players. I think this is a bonus for Giddey because that's the exact type of lineup he matches up well against and will keep him on the floor. While we don't need a bump in minutes for this bet to show value, it certainly wouldn't hurt it, and I do think there's a chance we see more of Giddey than usual on Thursday against the Kings.

Giddey is projected to have 4.8 assists on Thursday, which isn't quite the five we need to earn a green checkmark, but it's the +130 price point that is the key here. Based on this projection, we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -105, but it is available at bet365 for +130.

Josh Giddey prop: Over 4.5 assists (+130 at bet365)