Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: There Is Nothing Like a Dame

Sundays return to their showcase status for NBA betting after the All-Star break, and today’s slate of games doesn’t disappoint.

The action tips off at 1 p.m. ET and rolls into a 10 p.m. ET finale, so slap on those Sunday sweats, find a comfy groove in the couch, and put your phone on silent.

I’ll help get the ball rolling on a busy day betting the buckets with my favorites NBA player props for Sunday, February 26.

NBA player props for February 26

• Davis Over 11.5 rebounds
• Lillard Over 4.5 3-pointers
• Sabonis Over 1.5 steals + blocks

Picks made on 2/26/2023 at 11:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

AD Smashes The Glass

The Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks bring plenty of star power to the court in their Sunday matinee, including L.A. big man Anthony Davis.

Davis goes up against a very thin Mavericks frontcourt which is still missing Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans, leaving head coach Jason Kidd to roll out a smaller lineup. Dwight Powell tops out at 6-foot-10, with 6-foot-6 Reggie Bullock at power forward, and 6-foot-9 forward Christian Wood off the bench. That’s it for beef under the boards for the Mavs.

Even with a full frontcourt, Dallas is among the worst rebounding clubs in the league, boasting the second-lowest rebound rate in the land. The Mavericks recently watched San Antonio center Zach Collins do his best Dennis Rodman impersonation, hauling in 12 rebounds Thursday (shattering his 7.5 rebound O/U).

Davis has a rebound total of 11.5 boards for Sunday, with the Over presenting solid value as high as +106. He’s been much more active on the glass this month, averaging 13.8 rebounds an outing, and has had 12 or more boards in six of eight games in February.

The Lakers’ new-look lineup is also generating more shots from the outside, with the backcourt bolstered due to a busy trade deadline for Los Angeles, which opens up more chances on the offensive glass for Davis.

On the defensive end, he’ll face little competition for rebounds against the Mavs’ shorter lineup and stretch-five set. Los Angeles has also seen a defensive uptick under this new-look lineup, checking opposing teams to less than 42% success from the field over the past four games.

Anthony Davis prop: Over 11.5 rebounds (+106)

Dame’s Claim To Fame

Damian Lillard had an earful for his teammates this week. According to The Athletic, Lillard was preaching urgency heading into today’s home stand with the Houston Rockets, as his Portland Trail Blazers are currently below the cutoff for the postseason play-in.

The Blazers’ superstar has a good shot of “walking the walk” after “talking the talk” this week, given the Rockets’ wretched defense. Lillard has a lofty point total for Sunday’s contest (36.5 points), but we’ll look to his output from beyond the arc for this prop pick.

Lillard has a 3-pointer total of 4.5 (Over -130), a mark he eclipsed in each of his final three games before the All-Star break. He sat out Thursday’s troubled trip to Sacramento for rest reasons, and hits the floor fresh and motivated to set the tone for the second half of Portland’s season.

Lillard was very active from outside in the three games before the break, attempting 13, 14 and 17 shots from 3-point range, and totaling 19 makes on those long-range looks. 

He’s not gun-shy at home either, where he averages 4.3 triples on 11.5 attempts per game (37.7%). Lillard is known for hitting his stride in the post-break landscape, most notably with his success from 3-point range, where he hits 38.4% from distance post-break, versus 36.8% pre-break for his career. 

As for Houston, it gives up a league-high 14.6 triples per game, with those foes firing at better than 37% from distance. The Rockets are also missing key perimeter pieces heading into Sunday, with standout guards Jalen Green and Kevin Porter out – both among Houston’s top-rated defensive players.

Damian Lillard prop: Over 4.5 3-pointers (-130)

D’ing Up With Domantas

The Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder have the tallest total on the Sunday’s NBA odds board, so of course were leaning into a defensive prop for this contest, right?

Kings versatile big man Domantas Sabonis has been sensational in his first two games since the break, pulling an "Ice Cube" against Portland on Thursday, and posting a double-double in the overtime marathon versus the L.A. Clippers on Friday.

But behind those points, rebounds and assists were solid defensive stats as well, with a block and a steal against the Clippers, and a trio of swipes versus Portland. Sabonis went Over the 1.5 combo total on his steals/blocks prop in both outings, and has done so in seven of his 10 games this month.

His Steals + Blocks prop for Sunday’s showdown with OKC is still at 1.5, with the Over paying out as high as +115. I'll bite.

The Thunder do take care of the basketball in terms of turnovers (7.5 steals against per game) but play a frenetic pace that produces plenty of possessions, and an uptick in steal opportunities for the lanky Sabonis, who is averaging 1.5 steals this month.

He will also have a bevy of blocking opportunities as well, with the Thunder among the top points-in-the-paint offenses in the NBA. Oklahoma City aggressively goes at the rim, which has led to an average of 5.6 blocks against on the season. That has jumped to 7.3 over the past three games.

Most recently, Phoenix Suns big man DeAndre Ayton recorded one steal and two blocks versus OKC on Friday, and Utah shot-swatter Walker Kessler totaled seven blocked shots against the Thunder on Thursday.

Domantas Sabonis prop: Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+115)

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