Best NBA Player Props Today: A Dime For Your Thoughts?

Prop bet #1: Calling Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga called out Steve Kerr, got a haircut, and decided to become an All-NBA type of player in these last few weeks. In his last nine games, Kuminga has averaged 24.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. 

Kuminga is going through a phase right now where the projections and sportsbooks are having to adjust extremely quickly to his new level of play and role in the Warriors' offense. The bulk of that attention has been on his points prop, rightfully so, but I think the assists prop might be flying under the radar on Monday for Kuminga.

The Warriors have been using Kuminga in a three-man game where he screens for Curry, and Green is the passer, and it's been very effective. However, the Warriors gave us a couple of different looks against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday. Kuminga was the ball handler, and Curry served as the screener in the pick-and-roll, immediately grabbing attention for an assist prop.

Kuminga already benefits from having Klay Thompson and Curry as teammates because they can knock down threes off of his passes. Now, we're also going to see a bit of Kuminga as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll. Sign me up for the Over on his assists prop.

Kuminga is averaging 6.7 potential assists per game over his last three games compared to the 3.3 he averages on the season. The Warriors are also expected to be without Andrew Wiggins on Monday, which will mean even more touches for Kuminga on the offensive end.

Kuminga is projected to have 2.7 assists on Monday, allowing us to price the Over 2.5 assists at +102.

Jonathan Kuminga prop: Over 2.5 assists (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: We won't be out Fox'ed

This will be the fourth straight game that I place a straight bet on the Over for De'Aaron Fox's assists prop, and the last three bets haven't gone as planned. We're 0-3 on those bets, and what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results?

Here's the thing with these Fox bets: the first one we bet was Over 4.5 (-140). If that was the price on Monday, I wouldn't place a bet on Fox. But it isn't the price; the new adjusted line is Over 4.5 (+114). So our projections keep dropping for Fox because of how he is playing, but so does the price. We still have a probability gap on Fox's assists prop despite the recent losses.

If I went on vacation last week, came home, and saw Fox trading at 4.5 (+114), I'd instantly hit the button on this number. So why let the scar tissue of a previous bet on Fox get in the way of a probability gap we're seeing on Monday against the Cleveland Cavaliers? That's how I view it, but you're more than welcome to pass on the bet.

Fox is a score-first type of point guard, and this was evident in his game against the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. The defense has to be able to force him into a pass once he gets into the lane. I think the Cavaliers have two players in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen who can force Fox to pass more on his drives than other defenses could, which is also why I'm running this bet back with Fox.

Fox is projected to have 5.1 assists on Monday against the Cavaliers, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -128, but it is trading at Caesars at +114.

De'Aaron Fox prop: Over 4.5 assists (+114 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Cooking with Curry

Kuminga isn't the only Warriors assists prop we are looking to target on Monday against the Brooklyn Nets; we're also seeing an edge with Steph Curry's prop as it trades at plus money for the Over 5.5 assists.
When Curry faced the Nets on December 16, he only had 1 assist, but you can't judge Curry off of this previous matchup. The small ball lineup with the emergence of Kuminga is a much different offense than one led by Chris Paul with Curry off the ball.

What the Nets allowed the last time these two teams played was for Curry to generate switches in their defense and then attack the switching defender one on one. Curry absolutely cooked them in the fourth quarter with this, scoring 37 points for the game, and the Warriors won by 4 points.

If you're the Nets, there's no way you watch this film and play the same defensive coverage, especially with Curry coming off a 60-point game against the Hawks. I fully expect the Nets to send more help defense and not just leave Cam Thomas or Nic Claxton on an island against Curry, turning him into a passer.

Curry is projected to have 5.9 assists on Monday against the Nets, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -110, but it is trading at +116 at FanDuel. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 13%.

Stephen Curry prop: Over 5.5 assists (+116 at FanDuel)